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Summary:

Windows Phone isn’t out of the gate and yet it’s already doing a solid job convincing developers, advertisers and publishers that it has a future, according to Millennial Media. After Android, 20 percent of publishers are equally planning on adding the iPad and Windows Phone 7.

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Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 is not out of the gate and yet it’s already doing a solid job convincing developers, advertisers and publishers that it has a future, according to a new report from Millennial Media. The independent ad network teamed with Stifel Nicolaus and Digiday on a survey of 500 publishers, developers and advertisers in the third quarter on their current and future mobile plans.

As expected, Apple’s iPhone is the top current platform: 30 percent of publishers surveyed are targeting it now. Next year could be different though as Google Android leads the pack in planned interest for 2011 with 29 percent of publishers expecting to leverage it as a priority. These numbers are similar to recent developer surveys from Appcelerator. But after Android, 20 percent of publishers are equally planning to focus on the iPad and Windows Phone 7. That’s a great showing for Microsoft, considering it has no devices on the market quite yet and there is no clear sense of how big the installed base will be next year. It’s also better than the Appcelerator survey, which showed developers were more interested in BlackBerry than Windows Phone 7.

It helps that Microsoft is paying some developers to develop for Windows Phone 7. But that alone can’t account for all the optimism. More likely, advertisers, developers and publishers are hearing of the promise of Windows Phone 7 and may be convinced that Microsoft is finally serious about competing in smartphones again. We’ll have to see if this intent turns into actual development plans but it’s got to be encouraging for Microsoft. So far, it appears like there will be some 1,000 apps ready for Windows Phone 7′s launch on Nov. 8.

For now, Android still looks like the best platform to overtake iOS in publisher interest. In addition to being the top platform publishers plan to add next year, it is the second most popular current platform for publishers at 23 percent, according to Millennial, followed by the iPad at 21 percent. The outlook for Research In Motion is more challenging, however.

Despite still being the top smartphone OS in the U.S. according to Comscore and Nielsen, only 12 percent of publishers are working on the platform currently and only 12 percent plan on doing so next year. Developers and publishers are still not sold RIM’s prospects though that could change next year with more BlackBerry OS 6 devices and the PlayBook tablet. Palm appears to have an even tougher road ahead. Only 5 percent of publishers currently work on Palm’s webOS devices and a meager 4 percent plan on doing so next year. HP and Palm still have a lot of convincing to do to show that webOS will power a slew of tablets, smartphones and other devices.

Publishers are overall very bullish on app revenue growth according the Millennial Media survey. Thirty one percent said they expect revenue to increase by 100 percent in 2011, while 17 percent said they expect growth of more than 50 percent and another 17 percent expect growth of more than 25 percent. Regardless of who the platform of choice is, it’s clear that the app economy is only going to grow from here. The question is by how much, on which platforms and who will take the most advantage of it.

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  1. It wasn’t long ago that I was saying the new Windows Phone 7 was going to be a huge flop since Microsoft has lost a lot of its mobile phone following with previous phones. But if they actually get that many developers working to create apps for their new phone, I think they might actually make a turn around. I’m starting to get a little excited for the launch of this phone.

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  2. [...] those surveyed indicated they had plans to introduce Android support in the new year. The iPad and Windows Phone 7 tied for second place, with a 20 percent share each of respondents planning software for those [...]

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  3. There’s nothing in this report that suggests anything other than Windows mobile is in last place except for symbian.

    Also, you do realize that Windows mobile did have a large enough installed base that there are development shops which are required by their contracts to support this phone.

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    1. @bob You must be smoking something. “Windows Mobile” is Microsoft’s old mobile OS, “Windows Phone 7″ (WP7) is the new one to be launched on November 8th and compared to the survey done months ago there is an increase in developer interest for for it just as there has been consumer shortage for it outside the US where it has already been released. The article is not saying it is at the top of dveloper interest but saying the interest has increased for a mobile OS that has not even been released in the US while others are alrady in the market. It also has about 1000 apps before launch, something which took “Windows Mobile” about 7 months to achieve and much more than iPhone, Android, RIM, WebOS, Symbian had when they launched. So it is all certainly really looking up for WP7 and it has not even started yet. From the start when I saw it I already predicted that it will take the mobile space, that is what we are gradually seeing.

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  4. Morgan Stanley already forecasts that Microsoft will sell millions of Windows Phone 7 devices this quarter. So developing for it makes sense. Not sure why “bob” is trying to spin this negatively.

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    1. It wasn’t a given that developers would be interested in WP7. We’ll just have to see if this interest turns into real work.

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  5. One correction: Windows Phone 7 has already launched in Europe and Asia, it’s Nov. 8 for the US. And I read yesterday that they are having trouble keeping up with demand for the phones in Europe. I can’t wait to get my hands on one.

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  6. I’m bullish on Palm prospects. HP marketing and sheer size is sure to make it a hit.

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    1. In US maybe but I doubt the rest of the world. Lets not forget that countries like India and China hardly get convinced by HP marketing and thier products.

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  7. I wonder what percentage of the “new” development for non-iOS platforms is just porting of existing iOS apps?

    I’m not surprised to see developers turning their attention to other platforms after focusing on iOS (or Android) for the last few years.

    The unanswered question is how “hard” their plans are. Microsoft definitely has a window here, but if they don’t deliver the sales number I expect developer attention will quickly turn elsewhere.

    The Millennial survey seems to have left a lot of important questions unasked.

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  8. Just for giggles I googled “millennial media microsoft”

    Probably has nothing to do with the positive findings…

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  9. [...] gets, but the "developers have no interest in Windows Phone 7 except for money" canard is demonstrably false. It is a platform that has appeal aside from paychecks, and a good part of it is the development [...]

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  10. [...] a large number of developers say they’re interested in the platform: in recent surveys, 20 percent of programmers plan to code apps for Windows Phone 7 next year, which is the same number planning to make iPad [...]

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