3 Reasons Tablets Will Take 1 in 4 PC Sales By 2015

38 Comments

Tablet computers will account for 23 percent of all PC sales by 2015, according to a Forrester Research report out today. Desktop sales will continue to decline, much as they have for the past several years due to the rise of laptops and netbooks. But netbooks — which not too long ago showed a year-over-year growth rate of 641 percent — are also expected to fall behind tablet sales, starting as early as 2012. I agree with Forrester’s forecast, for a number of reasons.

Tablets Are Now Designed for Mobile Use

Having been around since before the turn of the century, slate computers aren’t new. But recent attempts were desktop-centric in terms of interface and design, requiring software shells for better usability. Trying to fit a desktop environment into mobile device has failed time and again, as the user experience doesn’t match the form factor — on a smaller touchscreen, apps must be optimized for size and be finger-friendly, for example. With the quickly maturing iOS4 (s aapl) and Android (s goog) platforms now available, however, current and future tablets are actually usable by anyone — even a cat.

Low-Powered, High Performing Chips Are Available

Most tablets prior to the popular Apple iPad were based on x86 technology from Intel (s intc) and the Windows (s msft) OS, which only served to exacerbate the desktop environment issue. And it caused short run-times — my first 7-inch tablet, a Samsung Q1 from 2006 that I repeatedly upgraded, was lucky to run for 3.5 hours on a charge. That’s changed recently thanks to ARM-powered chips like Qualcomm’s Snapdragon (s qcom) and Apple’s own A4, the engine behind the iPad. And Intel has made great strides to reduce power consumption, so between now and 2015 we’ll see even better chip options for tablets, such as a dual-core Snapdragon CPU.

We’re Shifting to Task-Based Computing

As little as five years ago, many of us sat in front of a desktop or a laptop and stayed in the same applications all day long: perhaps a productivity suite, undoubtedly an email client and occasionally, a web browser. That mindset has changed dramatically and will continue to do so over the next few years. Today it’s all about mobile apps that handle bite-sized chunks of specific functionality — Apple alone has delivered more than 3 billion app downloads from its iTunes store. A tablet is well-suited to quick hits of functionality at various times.

Does all of this mean gloom and doom for traditional computing? No, I’m not suggesting that the desktop or laptop paradigm is going away, and neither is Forrester. In my lifetime, I expect there will always be specific use cases in which a traditional computer with mouse and keyboard are the best tool for the task. But with a tablet it’s just you interacting with your data, one little app at a time. More and more, that’s all a user really wants.

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38 Comments

Clarkson

hahahah task based computing on a platform with no muli-tasking. Simply awesome.

Per-Ola

Maybe I should have summarized it as:

Laptops are for creating, tablets are for consuming (all based on form factor, easy of input, etc).

Scott

I don’t agree at all. There’s a broad range of content creation apps available for smartphones, for crying out loud. If you can shoot, edit, and publish HD video on the new iPhone, there’s no good reason to regard tablets – which should logically be far more useful for creative purposes simply because they’ve got bigger screens – as consumption-only devices.

joyhaa

well I don’t really see the reason to replace a laptop with tablet, esp when i need type a lot(coding). still feel tablet is for a niche market, not for the generic population, comparing it to laptop/pc is like a joke to me.

Scott

I’d respectfully suggest that if you spend a lot of time programming, your computer usage is probably not representative of the general population.

Ti

you don’t need to have programmer level of text input to justify laptop or PC usage. it is and likely will be the main personal computing device for years and years (well past the article forecast) to come. generating decent emails and having a nice IM session with friends are just two mainstream everyday app examples that laptops are just better than media slates at.

mark

I just don’t see it, these things just aren’t that useful. Holding a tablet in one hand while typing with the other is ridiculous. My iPad hurts my neck if I try to watch a whole movie on it, Chiropractors will love these things. The only useful way to use these is sitting on a coach with your knees up, but I almost need a little holder to loop around my knees so it stays put.
A netbook is way more use able, and they can do way more. I put a cheap SSD in my HP Mini and it boots in about 35 seconds, battery life is the one thing the iPad has that’s great but I seldom need more than 3 hours on any trip I take normally.
Mark

gman

Sorry, it’s hard to read this type of editorial. Bluntly, just rubbish. I can say that because nobody here is a profit. I have about as much credibility on the issue. The concept of the device is retarded. It’s called building something before there is a proven market. It’s a complete opposite of how netbooks came to be. What happens when smartphones can do most of what the tablet can do? Huh? Didn’t tablets already exist and failed already? Yes, that’s true. Apple is onboard so now their is a changing in the universe? Computers have keyboards. Computers are designed ergonomically for productivity. When Google TV comes out people are sitting on the couch with their 10″ tablet when they have a 42″ monitor in front of their faces? Nice editorial. Not.

Kevin C. Tofel

Interesting thoughts, but if your entire opinion of the market is based on the “concept of the device is retarded” that tells me that the device isn’t for you. And that’s fine – folks should always use the tool that suits them best.

But I don’t quite follow the logic after that for a few reasons.

“What happens when smartphones can do most of what the tablet can do? ” The key difference between smartphones and tablets isn’t in functionality — it’s in form, which becomes a function. Unless they grow to 7″-10″, smartphones will be different from tablets. Might a tablet be our primary voice tool in the future? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

“Didn’t tablets already exist and failed already? Yes, that’s true. Apple is onboard so now their is a changing in the universe?” The tablet universe has changed, but not because Apple is onboard. It’s because mobile operating systems have empowered the form. Yes, it happens that Apple was able to show this, but any company could have done the same had they created a useful, finger friendly OS with an ecosystem behind it for mobile devices.

gman

I appreciate that you’ve replied to my comments. That’s say something about your professionalism.

I know the point of the editorial is based on speculation. That said, so is this insane upcoming lineups of tablets from ALL the manufacturers. They base this on the iPad craze? That’s a recipe for disaster. There is no indication (outside of the Apple following) that says people are breaking down the doors for tablets.

Tablets are not laptops. If you have a portable laptop would you also own a tablet? If you own a laptop and an ereader would you buy a tablet? If you own a smartphone and a laptop would you buy a tablet? All legitimate questions.

I didn’t even mention that color ereaders will be coming out at a price point that a tablet could NEVER match. So the ereader can consume all the media that the tablet can be used for. Less reason for someone to buy a tablet.

The market is built on a house of cards. That’s why the projection is a complete joke. Surely to god this justification isn’t because of the marketing and hype surrounding the iPad. A burst of great sales (hype based) indicates a long and prosperous future and growth? Sorry, way too many devices competing for the same dollar, some portability and the same functionality.

Reality is, the tablet will fail because there is no keyboard. If you buy a keyboard, stand, etc, then the joke is on you I’m afraid. If you want a device to consume media that has no keyboard then you will be seeing color ereaders that cost 50-70% less than your tablet, keyboard and stand.

My hope is that you will bring forward this editorial in a couple years so we can all giggle at it.

Aj

Apple did couple of things beyond the usability which is critical for the current success of the tablet, relative to its past–price. It essentially positioned it between a eReader, netbook and a good PC. This has allowed for people to experiment, rather than buying a traditional tablet that easily costs upwards of $1200. The second item I should point out in response to one of the threads is the point that no one is asking for tablets outside of Applists (yea, new term). Lot of enterprise and public sector customers are asking for tablets and we will see continued pressure for tablets to replace some part of the business, either as a secondary standalone device or as a primary combination device (where tablet can be detached from the laptop). So while some of the projections are probably overblown, especially when smartphone future in terms of foam factor still continues to evolve–there is some real short term life in tablets. My 2 cents :)

Nameless

The problem with most tablet computers is that they’re not thought of as pen and paper replacements with an interface to match.

Virtual keyboards are doing it wrong. I should just be able to write and/or draw something, and have it captured and saved then and there. Note my emphasis on PEN input-and I don’t mean a plastic toothpick stylus, but a Wacom EMR pen.

The reason why there are virtual keyboards is that the OSes and apps are built around either a keyboard-and-mouse paradigm or a finger touch paradigm, both using plain text all the same. Plain text is fine for comments like this, but try typing out a math formula/equation or diagram. Not so easy now, is it?

Don’t get me wrong-I like a good keyboard, like my two IBM Model Ms. I can touch-type much faster than I can handwrite. But the keyboard is not suitable for everything, and there are many things that would be much more easily done digitally as opposed to that kludgy dead tree stuff.

Too bad the current trend set by Apple has all but minimized my likelihood of ever being able to buy the ideal pen tablet computer.

(And, no, it would NOT replace my custom-built desktop. Who says we can’t have different kinds of computers?)

Wang Hung Lo

Too bad Apple can’t make them iPads faster to meet worldwide demand. The iPad alone may garner 20% of the market if they could only produce them quicker.

The iPad 2 might just turn the PC world totally upside down.

Tal

I think Forrester got it wrong.
They disregard the smartphone segment which changes the big picture. By 2015 many more people will have a PC as their 4-5″ smartphone or even 7″ if we get to folding technologies! All pocketable and mobile. Very powerful and with tablet like OS.
In that scenario I doubt what they refer to as tablets will exist in that volume (1:4). I also doubt Netbooks will exist by then, but that is another story.

Tal

Kevin C. Tofel

In terms of smartphone inclusion (others brought this up too), it all comes down to definitions, of course. My take is not to include smartphones because they currently offer something that PCs / netbooks / tablets don’t: traditional cellular voice connectivity, which is still a primary differentiator. That’s changing as we use Skype, Google Talk, other VoIP platforms, but for the moment, I think it makes sense to keep these pocketable computers with voice capability out of the equation.

Tal

My argument was a bit different Kevin. I was implying that by 2015 smartphones will be widely used and provide to the public the same tablet experience. Thus even if you do not mix smartphones into this chart – they will influence it by taking the “other” tablet category there down by a lot.
My point: I don’t think a lot of people will have another tablet in addition to their smartphone by 2015, considering what that smartphone might be able to do and its size.

Tal

Scott

@Tal: I’m dubious about that argument. Having used both an iPod Touch and an iPad, I feel comfortable saying that size really does matter to a lot of people for a lot of applications, so I doubt that a 4-5″ smartphone will stand in for a 10″ tablet. I haven’t had the chance to use a 7″ device yet, so I’m less certain about equivalence there, but I’m a little skeptical about the notion of folding screen technology in general.

Kevin C. Tofel

Tal, I better understand what you’re saying now – thx for the clarification. I’m leaning more in line with what Scott says due to size because I’m not sure smartphone “slabs” will replace devices in the 7-10 inch range by then. Interesting thought though.

Tal

http://www.gottabemobile.com/2010/06/21/toshiba-touch-dual-screen-on-video/

Just saying its not that hard to see this technology getting to 5″ screens and future smartphones. Mind you, a next gen Streak with dual 5″ screens. I guess that they will get thinner, more continuous and maybe using a slider over time instead of a clam-shell design.
The end result would be a wide screen mobile tablet. We are talking 2015 you know so I feel comfortable that we can/will get there.

Lava

Overall a good article. Two problems

1) Forrester must be doing their analysis under a rock if their saying the tablet market will amount to just 3.5 million in 2010, knowing Apple sold 1 million in the U.S. In April with a good chunk of the second million also in the U.S. in May. If they can’t get this year’s forecast right in the face of hard sales data then it throws into question the rest of their forecast

2) Jobs announced FIVE BILLION app downloads at WWDC. Disheartening that basic facts are incorrect weeks after the news has been out. I hope you correct because pro journalists shouldn’t be making factual errors like this. I don’t understand how you could have linked to a story from all the way back in January, either, without checking for a more recent figure. Sorry to be harsh but journalism has to have standards.

Kevin C. Tofel

Lava, I can’t argue with your comment about the number of downloads. I was actually covering WWDC when the announcement was made but it was a frantic day — I was trying to write as fast as Jobs was speaking. ;)

Still, you’re spot on and I’ll get an update in the post to reflect the 5 billion download number. Given the growth from 3b to 5b between January and June, it actually reflects how much impact the iPad has had, and is well worth noting. Thanks for the feedback.

Anon

I think Forrester has the desktop/laptop situation exactly backwards, and that the laptop market has probably peaked, or will shortly. Not only will tablet sales become a huge chunk of the pie, but they will end up doing this at the expense of, particularly, netbooks, and also laptops. However, I don’t think this means people will all be buying tablets instead of traditional computers, although some will. What they will do is buy a tablet and a desktop, instead of a laptop, for the same price, giving them the advantages of a desktop for their main computer, and the ultra-portability of a tablet for travel and casual computing.

Most people who buy laptops today, don’t really need laptops, but it’s trendy, and it does allow them to take it with them on trips. But for the actual portable uses they put the laptop to, they will be much better served by a tablet without the hassle of hauling around a larger, heavier laptop. And, with larger screens and faster hardware, they’ll be more productive on their desktops.

College students may remain exceptions to this, due to space constraints of dorm rooms, where fitting in a laptop is a lot easier, but they’re also a demographic that will likely be wanting tablets, and most of them can’t afford two portable devices, so smaller desktops like Mac Minis or 21″ iMacs might fit their wants better as well.

Ti

i couldn’t disagree more. pay attention on what you actually do with a laptop PC. my guess is that you do a lot more on it than you recall when posting this. even if you keep it simple with email and chatting/IM and web surfing, i would contend that you’re experience is not only much richer (larger display on laptops), easier (ergonomically better than flat lying or holding it in one hand), and far more comprehensive (physical keyboard/mouse vs virtual). my guess is that you posted with a PC and not iPad. why do i guess that? its longer than a few sentences. can you seriously say you would draft detailed emails that outline, say, your 5 year business plan on your iPad? could you or would you always wait until you can get back to your home to do this? your analysis assumes that people’s lives are discretely separated between fun and work at all times. All signs point to the opposite that work and personal are merging and integrating into ones lives…for better or worse. desktops will be regulated to the corporate environments (where it doesn’t make sense for companies to buy employees laptops) and communal home or public PCs. everyone else will get laptops and other mobile devices to meet their lifestyle. iPad type products won’t be that primary device however…it will be secondary.

Nameless

This is basically the approach I have taken, except for that my laptop is my tablet and my tablet is my laptop. By that, I mean a convertible Tablet PC.

This one’s not a total slouch (Gateway E-295C, Core 2 Duo T9300 2.5 GHz, 2 GB DDR2-667, ATI X2300), though at 14″ and over 6.5 lbs., I’m starting to miss the old HP TC1100 somewhat. Not as convenient to use as a slate-it’s now more of a mobile workstation with an integrated Wacom Cintiq.

I still need a good custom-built desktop, though. Running PC games is intensive, developing them even moreso. And, yes, I am a college student, albeit one who isn’t blowing money on a dormitory or apartment room since tuition is expensive enough. If I did, I’d still find a way to fit my full-tower ATX case, 21″ CRT monitor, and other bulky accessories in there.

Luscious

FAIL. I’m very skeptical of those figures, especially that 2015 number – did the head honchos dismiss the difference between content creation and content consumption? Did they merge consumer and business markets now? Who funded the research? What about the rest of the world?

Reports like these serve no real use for they are lacking in so much detail. It is impossible to address future technology impacts, as I’m sure that report – had it been done before the iPad release – would paint a different picture. FWIW, I could have said the same thing in 2008 in favor of netbooks!

Scott

Three words for your tired “consumption vs. creation” argument: iMovie on iPhone.

Steve 'Chippy' Paine

Note that this is only US sales and that the sales numbers can actually increase while the % of market share decreases. (17% of 500M is more than 18% of 350M for example)

In countries where practicality rules and where money is tighter, the figures won’t be anything like this.
In Eastern Europe the netbook is becoming the only PC people have. In Western Europe, people are taking a more pragmatic approach to tablets. In India, China, many parts of Africa, users need to justify a PC for business purposes and the only one that makes sense is the traditional PC in clamshell format.

Tablets will come, possibly, but no-one needs to worry as the pie appears to be getting bigger.

Tobalassi

in pure volume, there are more PC’s selling today than ever (1m+/day) regardless of marketshare, so MS has nothing to worry about for now. i love the slate form factor but i have to admit now that its gone mainstream its highly overrated. lets wait until the initial Apple sales surge is over & the bust begins as it always does, then REforcast how all of this will go.

so much hype, so little substance anymore. it feels like computing is becoming the new kid thing to do.

Ti

the stat is completely misleading or the definitions used are very liberal. what forrester did was just add what they thought media slates would do to the PC market forecast…thus, making the pie bigger and adding their media slate slice to it. media slates won’t take 1/4 of PC sales away by 2015. to think so just is too simplistic. media slate owners will very likely own a PC as well…just like they own other CE devices that they believe make their lives easier or more enjoyable. By this definition, Forrester should have added the 240M smartphones that will be sold this year to the total pie then too. Kinda puts the 6-8M or so media slates that some forecast for 2010 into perspective. its like saying that portable dvd players are eating away at the TV and DVD market. how silly is that? this doesn’t make the iPad or iPad like products losers, its just different. i would bet cash money that you aren’t giving up your laptop for the iPad/media slate type product any time soon. no one i know will. now to your points:

  1. media slates are designed for mobility but again so are notebooks. and there are really thin and light notebooks these days so the differences aren’t that huge. i would actually argue that notebooks do a better job at mobile usage than media slates. sure, if you just want to play a simple game and check some headlines, the iPad will do perfectly fine. but in a day to day situation, our research has found year after year that there are 2 mobile CE devices that consumers view as personal necessities: mobile phones and laptops…and this is by a mile. i’ve been to a few tech conf since the iPad launch and to witness some folks hunched over or watching them pull out a bunch of accessories and setting up trying to take notes on it is humorous…especially when i sit down at the same table and lift my laptop lid and power on. media slates are additive to the consumer mobile life like digital cameras, portable gaming systems, iPods, etc. not in lieu of laptops or PCs.

  2. I agree with your #2 but that doesn’t affect anything that was said in #1. when you need computing power or the capabilities to have a 2 way session with your data, files, information, entertainment, etc. its going to be on something like a PC.

  3. I’d actually argue against this. true task based computing already happened. its when desktops dominated the PC market. that was when you had a list of things to do on your computer, set aside some time to do it, did it, and then left. the rise of notebooks allowed you to move away from task based computing where we are today. computing is actually no longer task based as much as its integrated into your life. you can’t tell me that killing time on whatever mobile platform is truly task based. sure i get that maybe you mean playing that game in a silo. thats not task based computing. that’s lifestyle. you are out at starbucks sipping your $7 coffee enjoying your afternoon chatting online with friends, then going to your mom’s and showing her your latest vacation pics, then going home and vegging out in front of your TV surfing the web…something that you could not do in the true task based computing paradigm that was the desktop dominated PC market. I’d argue that we are going FROM task based to lifestyle based and that was due to mobility and flexibility of the laptop PC.

media slates are additive like phones and ipods are. slates will do well but not at the cost of PCs.

Per-Ola

Tablets (thanks to their relative low price points and high processing power) will venture in to areas previously cornered by specialized – and very pricey – devices.
Areas such as marine navigation (an iPad makes a great chart plotter), inventory tracking, or possibly even health care.
Companies will take these mass produced tablets, and provide for low cost custom enclosures, opening up brand new markets by means of lower overall solution costs.

Kevin Krewell

Just to point out a couple of things:
1. The Forrester projection is for U.S. market only.
2. NVIDIA has a dual-core ARM Cortex A9 processor called Tegra, available now.

Bonus item: Desktop volumes aren’t actually shrinking WW, just not growing, therefore decrease as a percentage of the market. Products like the Mac Mini and the all-in-ones keep the category alive.
Kevin

Kevin C. Tofel

Good clarifications that help put this trend in perspective. One additional one: the dual-core Tegra 2 may be available now, but tablets that use them aren’t currently out yet and aren’t expected until the third quarter at the earliest last I checked.

Kevin Krewell

True, the Tegra tablets aren’t here yet, but Q3 2010 is a lot sooner than 2015. This category is just getting started – it’s going to get interesting.

Nameless

Speaking of desktop sales statistics not looking all that great, I have a feeling that a significant amount of desktop sales are not included in the data.

I don’t mean all those Dell/HP/Gateway/Acer/Apple/etc. boxes the average user would buy.

I mean the enthusiast custom-built towers. Systems that aren’t sold whole to begin with, but generally a separate case, separate PSU, separate motherboard, CPU, RAM, GPU, HDD, OS, and so on, all combined by the buyer into a working system that outperforms any pre-built desktop at the same price or higher if the component choices are good, let alone any notebook at twice the price or a tablet at three to five times the price, simply because games and demanding professional applications need the extra raw power only these desktops can deliver.

Because of how they are sold, I can’t really see them being reflected in computer sales statistics.

Yet because of the kind of people who would purchase and create such systems to begin with, I also question just how much the statistics would be influenced. Even the lowly netbook is overkill for the average user’s needs, and in the case of gaming, the average user tends to settle for a console.

Zach Steele

You make sense, but I think the ultimate reason tablets may increase sales is because people are realizing how convenient they are. The “tablet revolution” isn’t like the PC or smartphone took revolution; tablets juts offer a new form factor.

It’s not like you can do amazing things on a tablet that you can’t do anywhere else. The PC brought word processing, GUIs, (eventually) Internet access, etc. Smartphones allowed users to work with advanced apps, access the REAL internet, and have email and calendaring capabilities that were once exclusive to the desktop.

But with tablets, there isn’t anything SIGNIFICANT that can be done that can’t be done on a full fledged computer or smartphone. Sure you can play some games that take advantage of touch and the big screen well, but there isn’t a killer functionality exclusive to the tablet. But they offer an attractive, convenient, user friendly form factor. The biggest factor that will launch tablets into the mainstream is if that form factor is attractive, convenient, or user friendly enough. Because, with no killer functionality, that’s what they offer.

Kevin C. Tofel

Agreed on all points, Zach. I think the reasons I outlined contribute to the convenience item you point out. Bear in mind that I’ve been using Tablet PCs since 2004 and it’s only recently that I can say they’re “convenient,” mainly for the reasons listed in my post.

Zach Steele

Yes, but there’s a HUGE difference between a “tablet” and a “tablet PC.” I own a tablet PC for school, and I can say it doesn’t have the convenience of a “tablet;” I see it more as a computer with pen functionality, which is totally different than what “tablets” are nowadays. But you’re right, aforementioned developments are making “tablets” much more attractive.

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