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Summary:

Related GigaOM Pro Research Report (sub req’d): Forecast: Tablet App Sales to Hit $8B by 2015 Infographic by Column Five Media

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Related GigaOM Pro Research Report (sub req’d): Forecast: Tablet App Sales to Hit $8B by 2015

Infographic by Column Five Media

  1. Really?

    You think they are going to sell 100 Million+ iPads by 2015? That is the most ridiculous thing I have ever heard. 30 million iPads a year?

    I mean are you kidding me? Are you on this planet?

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    1. Ed

      120 million total iPads over six years = 20 million units a year.

      Just to compare >> 33.4 million Netbooks sold last year and about 40 million in 2010. The iPad sales are going to be single digit millions in 2010 and slowly grow.

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      1. The iPad sales are even going to be double digit millions in 2010. There will be nothing slow about the iPad. Wait and see… just 3 more days.

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    2. In January 2010 Apple announced that since the iPhone was launched in June 2007 over 75 million iPhone OS devices (iPhones, iPod Touches) have been sold (probably several million more now).

      Apple sold about 9 million iPhones last quarter (3 months) representing a 100% unit increase from year ago quarter.

      For some quarters (e.g Christmas) it is estimated the iPod Touch is outselling the iPhone (so a no phone device can sell).

      Surveys show that buying interest for iPads is higher than the first iPhone.
      the 240,000 pre-order number doesn’t include reservations for in store pickups. Some estimate reservations equal pre-orders i.e perhaps 400,000 plus in total.

      Selling 20 million iPads a year in the future is optimistic but not impossible.

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    3. I am with you Ed.

      I don’t get all this bullish feeling about the iPad. People love notebooks because they are amazingly cheap little portable computers that offer similar functionality to their desktop/laptop counterparts, functionality that users are familiar with. I don’t see them at all in the same category as tablets.

      The iPhone has been tremendously successful because there was a huge void in terms of cellphone usability that Apple has been able to fulfill magnificently.

      But to me the iPad, is a solution to a problem that most people don’t know they have, if they have it. There are some serious red flags that people are ignoring. Apple seems to be touting this thing like something you are going to be able to do work on? Basic ergonomics of the device seem to indicate otherwise. When are we supposed to use the iPad? when we are in the couch, when we are travelling, when we are in .. the bathroom? the iPad is going to be competing with two existing devices in those areas, laptops/netbooks and cellphones.

      You will still need a laptop/netbook and a cellphone for sure, who will ‘need’ and iPad on top of the other two too? Some but not everybody. If Apple is successful luring those people who don’t regularly use computers to get an iPad Apple may be into something big, but that is a really big ‘If’

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    4. @Ed – I was the analyst who did the forecast, so a few points:

      First, the tablet market as whole will benefit from its ability to eat into many existing large-volume markets. The obvious ones are netbooks, e-readers, and – of course – the media player market (like the Apple Touch).

      Gaming is going to be very significant. I think Sony and Nintendo have to be extremely worried, as portable gaming volumes are already getting hit hard by the Touch, and I think we’ll see the iPad eat into that market in a big way.

      Built into my assumptions is also a believe Apple will reduce prices over time, which will significantly increase volumes as well.

      Again, it’s a cumulative number over a nearly six year period (end of 2015), so the numbers are entirely reasonable and overall, are significantly less than other high volume device markets such as the netbook market, and on par with shipment volumes from single vendors such as Nintendo with the DS, a device with a much narrower set of applications and, hence, total available market.

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      1. This is the first editorial I’ve read that I have to agree with. I can’t believe how many people are not seeing the big picture. I showed the Apple tours video to a number of neighbors and they flipped out and are now purchasing one.

        A friend of mine who is technologically challenged, and who I shopped with for his laptop two years ago, still to this day needs tech help. His main interest was web surfing and email. He saw the Apple video and within minutes he was convinced and said “now THIS is the way it should be – finally!”. When he saw the ibook demo, that put him over the edge.

        As for gaming, I totally agree. It may not catch on immediately with 360 crowd of young men who are obsessed with Call of Duty, but older gamers (who can afford another device) will certainly be “eying” the pad. Those who don’t own an iphone or itouch do not realize the game potential on this unit and think it’s only meant for casual games. Have you seen some of the touch/phone games that have come out this year? Now imagine what will be done on the ipad. This will be the ultimate machine to play RTS and RPGS on. What about two player games on opposite sides of the pad; There’s so much potential. I’ll be honest, I play with my iphone games more then my PS3. At my age, I have no time to memorize button layouts on a control pad, and feel the need to scream over a headset after a hard day of work (especially with a 12 year old on the other end).

        The ipad will have universal appeal – just like it has with its ipod/phone/touch.

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      2. @Michael

        You analysts are full of bull. You can’t predict what will happen next quarter let alone next five years. The blindfolded chicken has more chance of finding a corn seed on an acre than all of you analysts combined are capable of “predicting” the future.

        Analysts should leave the their jobs to proctologists and find a real job that is beneficial for the society (if they can find one that is).

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  2. This is the kind of self fulfilling hype wheel that almost guarantees a success for Apple – and failure for any other new entrant – regardless of whether the product warrants it or not.

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    1. Thats makes no sense. You just don’t like what you are hearing. deal with it.

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  3. The know nothings said the exact same thing about OS X, iPod, and iPhone. They have been wrong every time and they are just as wrong this time.

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  4. Keep these great graphics coming Om. I enjoy these magazine like features you guys are doing nowadays.

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  5. I simply love this new thing from Giga OM. The blog is getting better and better. Keep up the good work OM.

    I am also not surprised to see the statistics here considering the fact that Apple is going to be without competition for a long time just like iPhone. And every other year they will keep getting better and better.

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  6. [...] Über 240.000 iPads sind bereits vorbestellt und Analysten sagen bis 2014 eine Marktdurchdringung von bis zu 120 Millionen Geräten voraus. Diese und noch mehr Statistiken und Zahlen in einem neuen Diagramm von GigaOm: [...]

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  7. if the iPad had Flash on it I would beleive the numbers but me and my friends wont buy this piece of hardware without having the full internet experience… its missing Flash and Steve Jobs is just lazy and greeedy

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    1. Apple’s edge is in providing a superior user experience. If they fail do to that, they become just another ‘Sony’ making slightly more cool hardware than the rest. Pretty much everyone other than Apple has decided to pile on features and software they think people want, THEN (maybe) clean it up and polish it later. Slapping Flash onto a mobile device would be an example of this.

      IMO, Apple is not lazy – Adobe would do the engineering for free – Apple realizes that Flash movies would make it impossible to guarantee a quality user experience. All other HTML content says “here I am, here’s the idea of what I should look like”, allowing the renderer (Safari) to place it based on the user’s screen and other content. Flash says “I MUST have a footprint of X by Y, and I MUST NOT be shrunk, and what I do in there is my business – don’t ask and don’t tell”.

      Yes, it’s a tradeoff – people like you are pissed about a lack of Flash, but lots of other people are using iPhone’s, not missing Flash and – whether they realize it or not – enjoying a maintainably good user experience that would be impossible with Flash in the mix.

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    2. I’m actually glad it doesn’t have Flash. I think Flash is cumbersome and overrated, a tool for Web designers/developers who are too lazy or inexperienced to use HTML and CSS to code for modern Web browsers.

      As for Steve Jobs, he might be greedy, but he’s definitely NOT lazy. Apple will shake things up with the iPad. I’m looking forward to seeing how it all plays out over the next year or so.

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    3. apple IS putting flash on the iPad!!!!!!

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  8. I think the price of the iPad will have to drop before it gets the type of traction in numbers you’re talking about. There are far too many cheapsters in this world who refuse to pay more money no matter how good a product is. All those netbook users out there are basically buying into a very low-end platform to save a few pennies and therefore justifying it’s value. Apple would have to get the iPad’s price down to the $300 range to make the cheapsters feel they are getting close to their money’s worth. Maybe iPad refurbs will hit that price level by the beginning of next year when new iPad revisions are released.

    I think that Apple is going to have to compete against very cheap Android tablets the same as what the iPhone is running into. Low-priced Android tablets from dozens of Chinese companies literally flooding the tablet market. Some will be good, others will be junk. It won’t matter to the cheapsters as long as those tablets cost about $150-$200. Those companies will have poor customer support but it won’t matter. Low initial cost is the only thing that matters to these type of users. These tablets will easily outsell the iPad throughout the world, especially in the poorer countries. Cheap will always take market share from quality. Apple’s iPad will still make the most money from whatever market share it has.

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    1. Odo,

      More expensive does not always equal “better”, especially when it comes to Apple. Personally, I’m quite happy with my Android phone. It’s less expensive than the iPhone, I get great customer support and I don’t have Steve Jobs acting as my nanny telling me what apps I can and can’t install on my phone. Android tablets may well offer a similar experience for me.

      Why I Don’t Want An iPad

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      1. Wow Tommy, way to miss the obvious. Netbooks don’t even have a touch screen, which is the primary feature of the iPad.

        Android only became a success after the iPhone, and is very similar in most ways. I’m a big Google fan, but there’s no way it would be as popular if Apple didn’t make the mistake of limiting iPhone to a SINGLE CARRIER in the US. That, and that alone is the main driver of Androids popularity. Nearly no one would have bought a Droid next to an iPhone.

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    2. What you’re forgetting is people are already paying this much for an iPhone, they just don’t know it. The iPad price is unsubsidized, but runs quite close to what free market prices(eBay) for latest generation iPhones these days. If people are falling all over themselves to buy iPhones at this price, I doubt they’ll have a tough time finding consumers. Per say the pricing is quite competitive with the Kindle or a decently equipped Netbook.

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