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Solyndra’s revenue ramp up last year was pretty mind boggling — the thin film solar maker went from generating $6 million in revenues in 2008 to $100 million in revenues in 2009. What will that mean when it finally plans to IPO later this year? According […]

Solyndra’s revenue ramp up last year was pretty mind boggling — the thin film solar maker went from generating $6 million in revenues in 2008 to $100 million in revenues in 2009. What will that mean when it finally plans to IPO later this year? According to a report from Next Up! Research posted on the marketplace run by startup SharesPost, Solyndra’s production and sales growth could lead to a market cap of between $1.76 and $2 billion.

Market capitalization is the size of a public company equal to the share price times the number of shares outstanding, and changes every day for every public company. It’s basically a way to incorporate in public consensus of how much the company is worth. And Next Up! Research clearly thinks that Solyndra will be worth a whole lot.

Next Up! Research’s projected market cap for Solyndra is based on a variety of data, including that Solyndra will have a 50 percent compound annual growth rate for revenues between 2010 and 2015, compared to a more modest 30 percent growth rate for the rest of the solar market. The report says that the installation costs for Solyndra can range between $0.50 and $0.75 per watt, which it says is about half that for other solar panels with a flat geometry, and that cost advantage could translate to better pricing and thus share gains. Next Up! Research also predicts that Solyndra will have a price per share of $6.54 – $7.44 for the common shares.

Solyndra’s estimated market cap of up to $2 billion is definitely aggressive. In comparison thin film solar leader First Solar has a current market cap of $9.66 billion, solar panel maker Sun Power has a market cap of $1.84 billion (bad week for SunPower this week) and Suntech has a market cap of $2.55 billion.

The report is available now on the SharesPost site, an experimental market place that lacks regulatory oversight and launched out of private beta in June. SharesPost valued electric vehicle maker Tesla (which also plans to IPO this year) at over $1 billion with an estimated price per share of $4.21-$4.93.

Read more related research on GigaOM Pro (subscription required):

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  1. [...] Solyndra’s Estimated Market Cap Up to $2B Solyndra’s production and sales growth could lead to a market cap of between $1.76 and $2 billion. [...]

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  2. [...] that raised hundreds of millions of dollars a couple years ago (Nanosolar, Heliovolt, Miasole, Solyndra) are now struggling to reach commercial-scale production, while utility-scale solar thermal [...]

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  3. [...] because its racks can be installed more quickly, more easily and with less skilled labor. According to a report on SharesPost, installation costs for Solyndra can range between $0.50 and $0.75 per watt compared to several [...]

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  4. While the installation costs my be relatively inexpensive, the panel costs are way to high. In 2009 the manufacturing cost was estimated to be $6.29 per Watt!!!
    http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/what-is-solyndras-cost-per-watt/
    Taking a poor idea and spending hundreds of millions to try to make it cheaper makes little sense compared to taking a good idea and investing a few million!! For thin film, First Solar (www.firstsolar.com) is already selling for about $1.00 per watt. For areas with good sun, Amonix (www.amonix.xom) and Sol Focus (www.solfocus.com) are already at grid parity. Upcoming technologies like the Rainbow Concentrator (www.sol-solution.net) also look promising.
    If/When Solyndra has an IPO, I do plan on making a lot of money, as long as I can short the stock!!

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