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Summary:

The days of web sales nearly doubling each year are long gone. UK Association of Online Publishers (AOP) members – who forecast 31 percent h…

The days of web sales nearly doubling each year are long gone. UK Association of Online Publishers (AOP) members – who forecast 31 percent higher online income in 2008 and 16 percent in 2009 – now expect 2010 growth of just 10 percent.

And that forecast is only being made by half of AOP annual census respondents. The association will only detail a membership-wide forecast of merely “positive revenue growth”, suggesting the average growth forecast is small.

In other words, online publishers – who have always had reason to be bullish because their medium offers advertisers more bang-for-buck – have lost their confidence as the ad downturn has flattened their perpetual up-curve.

More from the survey…

– Three quarters of survey respondents are planning more digital investment.

– But they may call in help to do so: 60 percent plan to do more technology-partnering.

– Nearly a half say ad sales is a top-three priority, a third put editorial skills in that bracket, and a quarter say the same of database skills.

– Half of publishers expect to increase staff this year (so how do many explain chucking a fifth of workers on the bonfire last year?).

– “Media owners are still finding it hard to fill vacancies in most disciplines, editorial being the notable exception” – given the number of journalists laid off in the last year, this hardly seems credible.

– Some AOP members are placing a lot of faith in video advertising, with AOP’s chairman saying video income “can be as big as you want it to be”. If you say so…

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  1. It is all about CPMs really. For many publishers they are a fraction of what they were during the expansionist period of 2007/8. I also think video hasn’t worked for newspapers either. There are however some reasons for smaller companies to be optimistic which I have outlined on my site http://ashleynorris.posterous.com/online-publishers-pessimistic-about-growth-bu

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