maybe MySpace should offer share of revenues generated from advertising on MY page. I work hard to maintain my page/profile, upload pictures, post interesting tidbits, comments etc, and FB/MySpace makes all the money? its like a producer taking all the money and not paying the film crew. that could change the social media networks compete. share revenues with users.

Another problem with Myspace is the user interface is trashed by allowing each person to apply a template to their site, and upload tons of images, videos, etc..to the point where it is unmanageable. The Facebook interface, for the most part, is clean and loads quickly.

I can’t name a single friend that still uses myspace, but almost EVERYONE I know uses FB. A few use Twitter, and a few use LinkedIn. I’m on LI, even though I consider it to be mostly useless and only log in about once every 3 months.

Twitter is most useful for people with smartphones (it was born for mobile use after all), and they aren’t mainstream yet, so I wouldn’t expect it to compare to a regular web-based social network.

I don’t disagree with your assertions, except MySpace hasn’t met their demise. Plus MySpace is much bigger than LinkedIn, Classmates.com, and Twitter. So my point on MySpace’s maturity stands.

On a slightly different tangent, I know some people who’ve setup multiple accounts so they can play Farmville and other games more effectively.

Do you think that MySpace management just got complacent? What, if anything, can MySpace do to resurrect its magic?

On the other hand, Om is far likelier to win that Academy Award than I am to buy anything hawked on Facebook (or MySpace).

I think it’s interesting that as the internet is evolving into infrastructure the permanence of web apps is being dictated by strong network effects cutting across different generations. It’s this “generational pull”, born out of college campuses worldwide, that really made Facebook and also why it will last for the long haul.

Very exciting times ahead as we see mobile, online payments, and voip intersect with social networking.

I’m not sure I agree with your conclusions, but I think your arguments are sound with the exception of the “dead cat bounce” which seems to be holiday related seasonality that all of the social nets reflect.

My reasons for disagreeing with your conclusions:

1. Social networks are (mostly) new forms of entertainment, with a vertical social net like LinkedIn offering niche value. As forms of entertainment, they capture user attention which is correctly measured in eyeballs and units of time, but create little economic value. This means that social networks are inherently diminishing services with a shorter lifecycle versus services which offer greater economic value.

2. Social networks should be benchmarked against broadcast media as broadcast media is also measured in eyeballs and units of time. Radio and broadcast television have shown similiar (albeit slower) mass adoption, with critics arguing the demise of radio when broadcast television emerged, and then the demise of broadcast television when cable television emerged. Today, we also have satellite radio, and IP based television. Lots of fragmentation, declining eyeballs and units of time. No broadcast fatalities as of yet, but LOTS of mature broadcasters whose lifecycles aren’t over yet.

Bottom line, I don’t think MySpace is dead, just maturing. As several have already commented, MySpace can thrive (financially) at current usage levels if and only if they get their niche content down. Think MTV, or VH1 if music is MySpace’s greatest strength.

My $.02,

Best.

But there’s still a ton of potential in that business. MySpace is still the 14th or so biggest site on the Internet, based on Compete.com. And they have a positioning that could work well against Facebook. MySpace has always been messier, more creative, and more music-oriented than Facebook. FB certainly has the numbers, but it’s fundamentally a pretty dull site. The platform’s great, and the strategy has been well-executed, but no one goes to Facebook to see anything new or risque. If anything, they’re a fast follower in many areas (see Twitter). Not to mention that people’s parents are now getting on Facebook, which is the death knell for cool. At least MySpace managed to avoid that with its crazy aura.

MySpace should get out from under the News Corp umbrella, which must make recruiting and retaining top talent immensely difficult. They also need to reinforce their positioning as the slightly seedy but alluring counterpoint to Facebook. They need better marketing (not advertising) to make people excited about being on the site. And they could probably use some help with monetization, which seems pretty difficult in the social network world in general.

Are they going to turn around? I doubt it, especially if News Corp holds on to them. But there’s a lot there to work with if only they would.