http://www.cnanalyst.com/2009/07/neteasecom-nasdaqntes-to-launch-wow-closed-beta-on-july-30.html

http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/07/14/world-of-warcraft-still-suspended-in-china-indefinitely/

MMORPG’s are MMORPG’s. No need to complicate them. I think fantasy because of the role RPG’s and novels already had on the generation was a natural early adopter with SF also in the periphery for the same reason. These are natural evolutions of any exciting category of entertainment or even technology. If you delve into the monster Blizzard has created you would notice the incredible IT infrastructure they employ with singular load balancing and scaling techniques as well as the process map that governs millions of subscribers globally. GE would be proud. What would be most useful is if someone identified the elements of entertainment and service and IT that combine to make a useful MMORPG, how the market leaders use that successfully and what succesful challengers need to emulate to even have a chance.

That my friend is a hook.

I seriously doubt you’re going to see WoW die any time soon…it’d take a serious MMO that really does everything they do better (and no, I’m not a fanatic, I barely play it anymore). That said, I agree that their growth is going to be dinged as they go forward. They’re running out of new markets to hit up for double-digit growth. That doesn’t mean growth will be zero, though. Remember, the population is still growing and the newer generations are more computer savvy and more likely to play the game sooner.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if they figured out a way to create a MMO based on Starcraft. “Starcraft Universe” using the same basic model from WoW but in the Sci-Fi genre. They’d make billions. They wouldn’t even have to worry about spaceflight…they could focus on jumping between worlds. Give them some time to push Starcraft II out and keep on the lookout for that. They’d be stupid not to do it.

Forgetting WoW for a sec and getting back to my point about copying WoW’s feature list, it’s interesting to see how many of the “bigger” MMOs are not grabbing Blizzard’s playbook. Age of Conan was a disaster…it’s crawling no matter what Funcom says…it’s never going to be anything more than another Anarchy Online…keeping it’s small pool of players around for a while. WAR seems pretty solid but it has limited appeal to the general MMO public. It’s more PvP centric so if you liked DAOC then you’ll be happy there. LOTRO is all about Tolkien fans but the fact that the game’s “maturing” with discounted rates and a lot of poking about getting back into it after the Moria expansion, it seems like Turbine’s worried about retention (and ultimately relevance).

Aion and Crimecraft are launching sometime in the next year (Aion’s coming in September barring any changes). Aion will steal another chunk of the limited fantasy MMO market from WoW and others but only for a while. Crimecraft will be niche like EVE is.

And, while all of these MMOs are doing their thing and taking chunks of marketshare and in most cases innovating a bit here and there, none of them are fun for long. I remember playing Tabula Rasa…general chat was filled with people talking about how they were so glad there was something OTHER than WoW to play. None of the major MMO companies are figuring this out. Everyone’s focused on being different from WoW and finding some niche outside of WoW’s subscriber base…no one’s trying to really compete. Blizzard did a great job of creating a lot of content with (largely) balanced paths bringing you around the world and keeping you busy. The PVP was there as well so the achievers who got to the end game had something to do. And they’ve changed a lot since they launched but you can still find everything where you expect it.

Last year at GDC, I remember hearing a statistic that stated there were 100+ MMOs in development. Haven’t heard anything more recent but I can imagine there are still plenty in development still. All the VC funds mentioned in the article are likely funding a lot of those games but honestly…we’re talking about a red ocean which makes you wonder at the logic behind the investments. Sounds like a mini-bubble forming here.

That was in 2008 just after the expansion came out at it was 11.5. And even then Blizzard stopped giving the breakdown of subscribers per geography.

1/2 of that number were Chinese players and the game is no longer available there – so don’t expect them to comment on how many players WoW has anytime soon.

My guess is that EU and North America pretty much is saturated and they are possibly getting single digit growth (assuming they are getting growth at all in the US). Their focus has shifted in player retention and you will see the 3rd expansion coming way sooner than the previous 2. Blizz figured out that expansions bring back old players and they sell well in itself.
A great proxy is for keeping tab of players is # of servers. Last batch to go online in the US was in January (on the heels of a great expansion). Since then nada.

Warcraft days of glory are over.

Expect a focus on other properties such as Diablo, Starcraft and the new IP that’s coming in 2011ish with possibly a single subscription for all of them.