Point #2. Google was catching Apple’s phone while their leader was on Apple’s Board. He is not longer in that position, which makes it much tougher to guess where Apple is going with the iPhone. Google will slowly fade away in this market. Loss of information is what happened to Bill Gates when Apple closed their campus to employees only.

Point #3 Catching up to Apple is NEVER good enough. Every compliant I heard about the first iPhone has been answered with the new 3GS. Price has dropped from $600 to $200. Speed and performance has increased dramatically. Every product upgrade cycle of the iPhone puts the competitors at a severe disadvantage.

Point#4 Verizon had the chance to get the iPhone. They chose not to support Apple. The thinking that Apple will go jumping back to Verizon quickly is just wishful thinking. ATT is spending $18 billion upgrading and expanding cell towers all in order to keep Apple happy. In short order ATT will have the best nationwide network.

It seems obvious that Apple will respect ATT’s efforts to provide the needed network.

I’ve made the switch to AT&T, and so far their “horrible” network seems alright. Not as good as Verizon’s is today, but no worse than Verizon’s was 6 years ago when I first became a customer. And supposedly AT&T is spending $$$ upgrading their network. I can tough it out for a couple of years to see how it all shakes out. By then either the iPhone will be available from other carriers, AT&T will have completed its upgrades, or someone will have finally released a worthy competitor to the iPhone on another carrier.

I second that. It is fascinating comment by Rich, because I have been in the same position and find that the Android-based G2 is actually a worthy competitor but there is something about it that makes it not as much fun as iPhone (despite the network>) I can’t put my finger on it … I wish someone, say Rich could outline that for me.

Would a bunch of people buy an iPhone if it was on Verizon? Sure. Would a bunch (20% or more) of ATT’s customers jump ship if the iPhone was elsewhere? Doubt it. The lure of the iPhone has already proved that people don’t really give a shit about the network – they want the freaking iPhone! The 3GS has broken sales records for ATT when we tought otherwise because of the beating ATT has taken on their network in the past year.

By the time the iPhone exclusivity runs out, ATT’s network will be “up to snuff” and they will mitigate any mass exodus.

All of this is my opinion as an Sprint customer who just bought an iPhone because ATT’s network DID improve to 850mHz and thus is equal to or better than Sprint or Verizon’s.

As far as AT&T goes, they’d better save their money, as when people have choices, they will bolt in droves.