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	<title>Comments on: What &quot;American Idol&quot; Can Teach Us About Stats</title>
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		<title>By: AEvangelista</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211287</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[AEvangelista]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 May 2009 12:50:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211287</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I just happened upon this discussion while Googling.

DG, I appreciate your insight and expertise, but it doesn&#039;t seem to jibe with reality.

For instance, Ruben vs Clay was 24 million votes split almost perfectly in half. That doesn&#039;t seem realistic. It seems more like the system maxed out and gave each a max of 12 million, without regard for actual votes.

Also DialIdol.com, a geek who counts busy percentages from users of DialIdol software, has shown itself to be a reasonable indicator of contestant popularity, at times even being  freakishly accurate. It seems from what you describe, DialIdol shouldn&#039;t work at all. But it does.

I believe we just witnessed Ruben vs Clay again, with Adam vs Kris. A virtual tie in the dial vote. But this time the decision was left to the text voters.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just happened upon this discussion while Googling.</p>
<p>DG, I appreciate your insight and expertise, but it doesn&#8217;t seem to jibe with reality.</p>
<p>For instance, Ruben vs Clay was 24 million votes split almost perfectly in half. That doesn&#8217;t seem realistic. It seems more like the system maxed out and gave each a max of 12 million, without regard for actual votes.</p>
<p>Also DialIdol.com, a geek who counts busy percentages from users of DialIdol software, has shown itself to be a reasonable indicator of contestant popularity, at times even being  freakishly accurate. It seems from what you describe, DialIdol shouldn&#8217;t work at all. But it does.</p>
<p>I believe we just witnessed Ruben vs Clay again, with Adam vs Kris. A virtual tie in the dial vote. But this time the decision was left to the text voters.</p>
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		<title>By: Brenda Brockwell</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211286</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brenda Brockwell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 21:38:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211286</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I would like to know how many votes  for each.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I would like to know how many votes  for each.</p>
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		<title>By: Rebecca</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211285</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Rebecca]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 May 2009 21:09:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I was not surprised by the outcome. First of all there was about a million votes separating the 2 top contenders.Danny and Kris are very much alike in the type of music they sing. Adam is very talented, but his music appeals to a much smaller audience which is not as mainstream. I think the voting was fair as far as the number of votes but I don&#039;t think the system works very well. After the 3rd person is eliminated, that singer&#039;s style will carry over to the one most like him. I think the same thing happened in American Idol 2 when Kimberly Locke was voted off. The people that had voted for her then voted for Ruben. Adam will be just as popular and successful coming in 2nd as he would if he were 1st.  He has an amazing talent.I think we should just let it go and let Kris enjoy it  He seems to be apologizing for winning.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I was not surprised by the outcome. First of all there was about a million votes separating the 2 top contenders.Danny and Kris are very much alike in the type of music they sing. Adam is very talented, but his music appeals to a much smaller audience which is not as mainstream. I think the voting was fair as far as the number of votes but I don&#8217;t think the system works very well. After the 3rd person is eliminated, that singer&#8217;s style will carry over to the one most like him. I think the same thing happened in American Idol 2 when Kimberly Locke was voted off. The people that had voted for her then voted for Ruben. Adam will be just as popular and successful coming in 2nd as he would if he were 1st.  He has an amazing talent.I think we should just let it go and let Kris enjoy it  He seems to be apologizing for winning.</p>
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		<title>By: Copyright Meets a New Foe: The Real-Time Web &#124; Digital Asset Management</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211284</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Copyright Meets a New Foe: The Real-Time Web &#124; Digital Asset Management]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 May 2009 06:02:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211284</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] What American Idol Can Teach Us About Stats [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] What American Idol Can Teach Us About Stats [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211283</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Top Posts &#171; WordPress.com]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 May 2009 00:12:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211283</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...]  What &#8220;American Idol&#8221; Can Teach Us About Stats Stats are everywhere these days. From ballot measures to the economy to health issues to baseball &#8212; there are [...] [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...]  What &#8220;American Idol&#8221; Can Teach Us About Stats Stats are everywhere these days. From ballot measures to the economy to health issues to baseball &#8212; there are [...] [...]</p>
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		<title>By: My Last AI Post EVER&#8230;but come on Statistics! &#171; JGHanks &#8211; Uncensored&#8230;for your pleasure.</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211282</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[My Last AI Post EVER&#8230;but come on Statistics! &#171; JGHanks &#8211; Uncensored&#8230;for your pleasure.]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 15:05:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211282</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[[...] GIGAOM Stats are everywhere these days. From ballot measures to the economy to health issues to baseball [...]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] GIGAOM Stats are everywhere these days. From ballot measures to the economy to health issues to baseball [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Amit</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211281</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Amit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 May 2009 05:56:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211281</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[agree with the observation and reasoning (somewhat) but not the conclusion. You said &quot;an error that can mean popular contestants can get rejected in favor of less popular ones&quot;. I agree that the margin between #1 and #2 will be less than it should be but I can&#039;t see how this will change the rankings [unless the voting pattern biases the way people vote in subsequent rounds]]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>agree with the observation and reasoning (somewhat) but not the conclusion. You said &#8220;an error that can mean popular contestants can get rejected in favor of less popular ones&#8221;. I agree that the margin between #1 and #2 will be less than it should be but I can&#8217;t see how this will change the rankings [unless the voting pattern biases the way people vote in subsequent rounds]</p>
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		<title>By: DG Lewis</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211280</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DG Lewis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 19:07:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211280</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t believe local exchanges or access tandems have ten-digit 8YY network management controls, although it&#039;s possible that they do -- and if they do, they&#039;d impose the controls uniformly on all the numbers in the 866-436-570X tens group.  Within the AT&amp;T &quot;long distance&quot; network they can control on a ten-digit level, but again, they&#039;d apply uniform controls on all the AI numbers.  Remember, the point of NM controls aren&#039;t to improve the chances of calls to overloaded numbers getting through, the point is to keep these calls from swamping all the other traffic in the network.

And I do know for a fact that the vote tallying and announcement resources are pooled - the guy that did a lot of the tweaking for AI used to work for me.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t believe local exchanges or access tandems have ten-digit 8YY network management controls, although it&#8217;s possible that they do &#8212; and if they do, they&#8217;d impose the controls uniformly on all the numbers in the 866-436-570X tens group.  Within the AT&amp;T &#8220;long distance&#8221; network they can control on a ten-digit level, but again, they&#8217;d apply uniform controls on all the AI numbers.  Remember, the point of NM controls aren&#8217;t to improve the chances of calls to overloaded numbers getting through, the point is to keep these calls from swamping all the other traffic in the network.</p>
<p>And I do know for a fact that the vote tallying and announcement resources are pooled &#8211; the guy that did a lot of the tweaking for AI used to work for me.</p>
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		<title>By: lineman</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211279</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[lineman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 18:03:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211279</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to folks at ATT it actually is possible to have dedicated call acceptance and rejection lower the exchange (866-436) level because of the sheer call volume. So it is possible that the calls are not pooled, and that is why their could be diferent odds of getting through by different number, as the writer suggests.

It is crazy how we are all discussing american idol. Some in some crazy way, the producers win again.

grrr]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to folks at ATT it actually is possible to have dedicated call acceptance and rejection lower the exchange (866-436) level because of the sheer call volume. So it is possible that the calls are not pooled, and that is why their could be diferent odds of getting through by different number, as the writer suggests.</p>
<p>It is crazy how we are all discussing american idol. Some in some crazy way, the producers win again.</p>
<p>grrr</p>
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		<title>By: jumpinjenn</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211278</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[jumpinjenn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 16:37:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211278</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I like this.  *thumbs up*

I say it is an iconspiracy to get tweens and teens to stop calling and start texting.  A much more lucrative endeavour for Job and his peeps.

Phonecalls are totally yesteryear, KWIM?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I like this.  *thumbs up*</p>
<p>I say it is an iconspiracy to get tweens and teens to stop calling and start texting.  A much more lucrative endeavour for Job and his peeps.</p>
<p>Phonecalls are totally yesteryear, KWIM?</p>
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		<title>By: virtual online worlds for kids</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211277</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[virtual online worlds for kids]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 11:26:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211277</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hmm interesting post, I&#039;m sure the smses get stucks when there&#039;s too many of them as well. So this tells fans to KEEP CALLING DON&#039;T EVER GIVE UP!!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hmm interesting post, I&#8217;m sure the smses get stucks when there&#8217;s too many of them as well. So this tells fans to KEEP CALLING DON&#8217;T EVER GIVE UP!!</p>
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		<title>By: Sam</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211276</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 05:42:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211276</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Interesting post (I raised the same issue last week, when I was unable to get through), and interesting discussion points.  I guess in the big scheme of things, I don&#039;t really care, either, but it does sort of feel to me like they could have a better voting system.  I suspect that there is a small percentage of extremely avid people who vote continuously throughout the open voting period.  I guess you could make the point that this shows which contestant has the most avid fan base, and therefore is the most likely to sell the most records.  But I have to assume that a lot, if not most, folks are like me - they decide to vote for someone, try calling a few times, get a busy signal each time, and just give up (because it seems ridiculous to keep calling over and over for several hours).  Sometimes I think perhaps the producers should only allow one vote per phone line, or something similar, so that at the end of the day, the vote truly represents the &quot;American&quot; idol, and not just the person with the most persistant supporters.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Interesting post (I raised the same issue last week, when I was unable to get through), and interesting discussion points.  I guess in the big scheme of things, I don&#8217;t really care, either, but it does sort of feel to me like they could have a better voting system.  I suspect that there is a small percentage of extremely avid people who vote continuously throughout the open voting period.  I guess you could make the point that this shows which contestant has the most avid fan base, and therefore is the most likely to sell the most records.  But I have to assume that a lot, if not most, folks are like me &#8211; they decide to vote for someone, try calling a few times, get a busy signal each time, and just give up (because it seems ridiculous to keep calling over and over for several hours).  Sometimes I think perhaps the producers should only allow one vote per phone line, or something similar, so that at the end of the day, the vote truly represents the &#8220;American&#8221; idol, and not just the person with the most persistant supporters.</p>
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		<title>By: Evelyn</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211275</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evelyn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 May 2009 03:08:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211275</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank you DG Lewis for the clarification.  Those of us nerds who got sucked into following AI - I blame my Aunt - feel much better knowing that the voting is being handled professionally.  Now let me get back to trying to vote for Kris Allen before the time is up!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you DG Lewis for the clarification.  Those of us nerds who got sucked into following AI &#8211; I blame my Aunt &#8211; feel much better knowing that the voting is being handled professionally.  Now let me get back to trying to vote for Kris Allen before the time is up!</p>
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		<title>By: ianbell</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211274</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[ianbell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 22:48:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211274</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;But the point was simply that without understanding how all of this works, there is a suspicion in the result.&quot;

I expect that sort of ambiguity is exactly what the Producers rely upon.  :)]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;But the point was simply that without understanding how all of this works, there is a suspicion in the result.&#8221;</p>
<p>I expect that sort of ambiguity is exactly what the Producers rely upon.  :)</p>
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		<title>By: DG Lewis</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211273</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[DG Lewis]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 20:36:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211273</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If AI voting works the same way it did five years ago when I was at AT&amp;T, congestion fundamentally occurs at two bottlenecks.  The first is the interconnection between the originating local network (end office or tandem) and the AT&amp;T &quot;long-distance&quot; network; the second in the AT&amp;T network.

At the local/4E interconnect, the local network applies network management controls on the six-digit code (866-436).  These are fairly coarse controls -- they uniformly throttle all attempts to all numbers in the affected code.  So, say, 1 in 10 calls to any 866-436 number will be processed by the originating end office or access tandem (or equivalent VoIP softswitch); the other nine in ten will get a fast busy.  Sucks for anyone who runs a business with an 866-436 number, but results in uniform blocking of calls to all AI contestants.  So if 10 million people attempt to vote for contestant one and 1 million attempt to vote for contestant two, the originating network will put through 1M calls for contestant 1 and 100k calls for contestant 2 (plus or minus some random variance, which at these numbers will be small).

Within the AT&amp;T network, the engineers did a remarkable job in tuning things to get the blockage rate astonishingly low -- if my memory serves, I remember numbers like 35M attempts with less than 1M blocked.  Within the AT&amp;T network, all AI calls route to the same announcement and televoting resource pool.  The digits dialed are used to designate which announcement to play (&quot;Thank you for voting for contestant 2&quot;), but the circuits are pooled, so the probability of a given call being blocked due to a lack of announcement circuits is the same regardless of which number was dialed.  Think of it as a single trunk group from the switch to a great big pooled announcement system, with enough announcements to play any announcement to any incoming trunk, rather than a separate trunk group for each announcement.  Basically, if 1 in 35 calls are being blocked, 1 in 35 are being blocked for every contestant - so the contestant with 1M votes getting to the AT&amp;T network would get 28,500 blocked and 971,500 counted, while the contestant with 100k votes getting through would get 2,850 blocked and 97,150 counted.

Bottom line, your statement that &quot;the system does not accurately represent voters’ intention&quot; is, well, wrong. But don&#039;t feel bad - there were hundreds of posts arguing this on comp.dcom.telecom.tech back in the day...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If AI voting works the same way it did five years ago when I was at AT&amp;T, congestion fundamentally occurs at two bottlenecks.  The first is the interconnection between the originating local network (end office or tandem) and the AT&amp;T &#8220;long-distance&#8221; network; the second in the AT&amp;T network.</p>
<p>At the local/4E interconnect, the local network applies network management controls on the six-digit code (866-436).  These are fairly coarse controls &#8212; they uniformly throttle all attempts to all numbers in the affected code.  So, say, 1 in 10 calls to any 866-436 number will be processed by the originating end office or access tandem (or equivalent VoIP softswitch); the other nine in ten will get a fast busy.  Sucks for anyone who runs a business with an 866-436 number, but results in uniform blocking of calls to all AI contestants.  So if 10 million people attempt to vote for contestant one and 1 million attempt to vote for contestant two, the originating network will put through 1M calls for contestant 1 and 100k calls for contestant 2 (plus or minus some random variance, which at these numbers will be small).</p>
<p>Within the AT&amp;T network, the engineers did a remarkable job in tuning things to get the blockage rate astonishingly low &#8212; if my memory serves, I remember numbers like 35M attempts with less than 1M blocked.  Within the AT&amp;T network, all AI calls route to the same announcement and televoting resource pool.  The digits dialed are used to designate which announcement to play (&#8220;Thank you for voting for contestant 2&#8243;), but the circuits are pooled, so the probability of a given call being blocked due to a lack of announcement circuits is the same regardless of which number was dialed.  Think of it as a single trunk group from the switch to a great big pooled announcement system, with enough announcements to play any announcement to any incoming trunk, rather than a separate trunk group for each announcement.  Basically, if 1 in 35 calls are being blocked, 1 in 35 are being blocked for every contestant &#8211; so the contestant with 1M votes getting to the AT&amp;T network would get 28,500 blocked and 971,500 counted, while the contestant with 100k votes getting through would get 2,850 blocked and 97,150 counted.</p>
<p>Bottom line, your statement that &#8220;the system does not accurately represent voters’ intention&#8221; is, well, wrong. But don&#8217;t feel bad &#8211; there were hundreds of posts arguing this on comp.dcom.telecom.tech back in the day&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin Bondelli</title>
		<link>http://gigaom.com/2009/05/19/what-american-idol-can-teach-us-about-stats/#comment-211272</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kevin Bondelli]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 May 2009 20:04:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://gigaom.com/?p=50381#comment-211272</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One thing about the SMS voting is that I believe it is only available to cell phone users on the ATT network.

They did decide to open up multiple lines for each contestant once the field narrowed, most likely for the reasons you mentioned in the post. Though this only decreases the phenomenon, not eliminates it.

The capabilities of reporting technologies and their effect on end-result statistics is an interesting concept.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One thing about the SMS voting is that I believe it is only available to cell phone users on the ATT network.</p>
<p>They did decide to open up multiple lines for each contestant once the field narrowed, most likely for the reasons you mentioned in the post. Though this only decreases the phenomenon, not eliminates it.</p>
<p>The capabilities of reporting technologies and their effect on end-result statistics is an interesting concept.</p>
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