Yes HSDPA and HSUPA will get deployed by the millions. No question. However they will last the same amount of time dial-up technologies last/lasted when cablle and DSl came on the scene.

If you cannot convince yorself. Take a plane and fly to Baltimore or Portland and try out your favorite HSPA and WiMAX (that you detest) side by side and then talk. BTW don’t spill the coffee while you do it :)

WiMAX is 4-6 times faster in average speeds in Portland and Baltimore than the best HSPA network in these towns. Also LTE folks have made their claims on 20MHz channels saying they are better than WIMAX. VZ the big LTE gun in the US only has 11 MHz channels to deploy LTE in. While Clearwire has 15 MHz channel blocks if they wish to deploy WiMAX in a single block. So get your data before talking BS. VZ will not be able to offer speeds faster than WiMAX period, except in the Lab with unrealistic configurations of 20MHz channels which no operator possesses anywhere.

IF you do not trust me, ask the VZ folks, they will sadly tell you the truth. Becausely lately they have been in a backtracking trend on both the deployment timeline for LTE and also the speeds it will offer. So no more BS please.

Nokia seems to have hit the nail on the head. I am not sure if LTE is any less hype than WiMAX. But with Wi-Fi getting faster (802.11n) and HSDPA/HSPA improvements, no one’s really holding their breath for WiMAX.

1. Is this service for the backhaul or the last mile?
2. Is this mobile (e) or fixed (d)?

I have seen mobile WiMAX work. WiMAX is not as impressive as today’s HSDPA or even some of the HSPA networks under deployment. WiMAX .16e should worry about HSDPA and HSPA which are both here today! With LTE, even cable should watch out (metro deployments).

A mass-market eco systems means hundreds to thousands of hand-held options and numerous options when it comes to laptops, and 50-200 networks worldwide covering over 4B PoP with over 1B subscribers.

The next big claim is; WiMAX is royalty & patent free (ok, sorry – I just made myself laugh so hard my keyboard has Starbuck’s coffee all over it). This is the biggest claim of them all. Read into 802.16 history and you will find out what I mean. Also, a company in San Diego let the world know years ago that they have $800 million reasons to lay claim to OFDM mobility and such.

WIMAX coming to Silicon Valley is great. If its’ free – make use of it. If you have to pay for it — shop around for mobile options that work when you are in the car — where you want to be.

Twitter/mobileinsider

The 3G operators in 2002 said that WiFi will never succeed, because it is unlicensed and will provide poor service. Today more WiFi devices sell every day and 3G devices of all kinds combined. Why? Because it was enabled by an open ecosystem like IEEE 802.11 and the WiFi Alliance where numerous companies play on a level playing field.

Today, it takes a really innovate iPhone with all the copy products to really sell 3G. Not to mention the 3GPP standards body that is a closed club of the Ericssons, Nokias and Qualcomm and the big operators who are only interested in self preservation than really innovating for the consumers.

Mobile WiMAX is created by IEEE 802.16 and WiMAX Forum again a truly open ecosystem. Also in the ink on LTE standards has not even dried. They today where WiMAX was in 2005. So WiMAX has a clear 2-3 year lead.

So my bet is on WiMAX. LTE is for Long Term Evolution so they will always be focused on the long term. WiMAX meanwhile will win, whether Mobile operators like VZ, AT&T and Vodafones of the world like it or not.

Forget the launch in Silicon Valley — they had a narrow window of opportunity against LTE and they have lost it. I don’t think it is going to be easy.

Nokia (NYSE: NOK) has panned the prospects of 4G wireless standard WiMAX, comparing its fate to Betamax, the early video format that emerged in the 1970′s and was superseded by VHS. The FT.com reports that Nokia’s head of sales and manufacturing Anssi Vanjoki said at a launch event that he didn’t see WiMAX taking hold anywhere in a big way. He said, “I don’t think the future is very promising [for WiMAX]. This is a classic example of industry standards clashing, and somebody comes out as the winner and somebody has to lose. Betamax was there for a long time, but VHS dominated the market. I see exactly the same thing happening here.”

It’s especially harsh considering that the handset giant is usually much more circumspect about the comments and criticism it makes. It also still has a seat on the board of the WiMAX Forum, the industry group that was set up to promote the technology and which Nokia was a founding member.

EtherLinx could have done this with Long Range WiFi at a fraction of the money already sunk in WiMAX. EtherLinx Long Range WiFi (up to 50 miles) has over One (1) Billion compatible client devices in the consumer market, vs. the case of “only about 30 devices” with WiMAX. WiFi is now the faster of the two technologies and WiFi devices will not only connect to the network, but interconnect directly with hundreds of different devices in the home, office, car and public space — some computing devices in their own right, others ordinary household objects.

EtherLinx “Wireless Broadband’s Holy Grail”

The solution to “get true broadband to every community in America” with Low Cost Long Range ubiquitous WiFi.

I’d personally like to see WiMAX succeed from a competitive market point of view. However, I’d add that if WiMAX does not succeed, one fatal flaw in execution will certainly be poor launch timing to support Silicon Valley, and the San Francisco Bay Area in general. In my view, the Valley and bay area should have been launch priority number one for Xohm/Clear.

My $.02.

Best,

Curtis