If you look at the buyer demographics for these devices, they are greatly driven by younger, smarter, web 2.0 and social networking junkies. These kids will grow up “in the cloud”… and I think that is the most important issue that isn’t being properly assessed by the critics.

Think Apple…. Think Netbook…. Think App Store…. Think $$$.

To their [Netbooks] credit, its not so much that they are at fault for being considered a “Fad” at the moment…. It’s simply that the infrastructure they were meant to Thrive On – WiMax/4G, Cloud Computing, Hosted/Subscription Everything – has yet to have been fully realized.

An Apple Netbook would make sense. It would fill out their product line.

On the other hand, it’s pretty easy to install the Retail Edition of Leopard on an existing Windows Netbook like the MSI Wind and have an excellent netbook that dual boots both Windows (XP or Windows 7) and Mac OSX. So netbook fans already can get the level of functionality discussed here, regardless of what Apple may – or may not do at Mac World in January!

If anyone cares, my full diatribe is here: http://www.netbookera.com/why-exactly-apple-will-announce-a-macbook-mini-netbook-this-january-2009/

I do think the small form factor is a legitimate niche – and the price drives the market for something cheaper than the Fujitsus, etc. which used to be the only thing available. Just as there is a niche for Tablets.

3G built-in? Makes sense. But, everything else you really need to have with you throughout the day is what should make the decision.

Here’s where the math breaks down for me though…. the netbook isn’t that much smaller and lighter than the X61. At the same time, the cost of 3G for year, by definition, puts me in a spending category where I don’t have to settle for a netbook. Remember a few years ago we were all debating how MS could keep charging that much for Windows when the price of laptops was approaching the price of the OS? Well the cost of connectivity now eclipses both. A netbook with no connectivity is a smaller, harder to use flavor of today’s least expensive standard notebooks. And, a netbook with good connectivity costs enough that the buyer can afford a decent small, light notebook and probably already owns one.

Leaves me feeling that the netbook is a fad with a cute or “look what I have now” factor but that is doomed to be a transition device stuck between light notebooks and smartphones. Ultimately notebooks only need to get 20% less expensive than they are today, gain better battery life and good built-in 3G or 4G with VOIP then we’ll end up carrying just the notebook with instant on for cellular or VOIP calling and leave the cellphones, netbooks, ipods and more at home. Or, we’ll have a smart phone that does almost everything and just carry the notebook for real computer chores. Seems like a variation on this thinking drove Palm to aim for the Foleo but they failed to “get” that we wanted fewer, not more things to carry and couldn’t bring themselves to obsolete the Palm device that the Foleo would interface with. Innovator’s Dilemma?

I hope, for their sake, that Apple’s working on a nice $500 netbook.