Update, May 4: Can Grand Theft Auto IV defeat “Iron Man”? The weekend box office results are in, and as I predicted yesterday, the answer to that question is a resounding “No”. In its first weekend, “Iron Man” grossed $100 million, far more than industry expectations (and mine), which pegged it at $70-80 million. But the notion that GTA IV (or for that matter, any other hardcore game) would hurt a major Hollywood movie never made sense. Read why below.
Many are predicting that the latest release of the video game franchise is so popular that it will hurt this weekend’s launch of Paramount Pictures/Marvel Entertainment’s latest superhero movie. This theory is everywhere, not just on game sites like Gamepro and Next Gen, but even reputable mainstream sites like CNN.
The argument is silliness on stilts. It is proof, however, that far too many gamers and industry executives are trapped in an echo chamber of self-regard. That’s a bad thing for the industry, so it’s worth addressing. In absolute numbers, the reality is that hardcore gamers who comprise GTA IV’s main audience are minuscule compared to the audience of a typical Hollywood blockbuster.
The latest in the Grand Theft Auto series, which was released on Tuesday, is currently only available for Xbox 360 and the PS3 owners, which means its potential audience is much smaller than the previous game. There’s just 15 million of them in the U.S. (11.6 million for the 360 and 4.7 million for PS3, respectively), according to VGChartz. Even if every single one of them buys a copy of GTA IV, the total audience is still dwarfed by potential moviegoers. “Spider-Man 3,” for example, grossed $336.5 million in U.S. theaters — with the average 2007 movie ticket price $6.88, that’s nearly 50 million viewings. And that’s only the start of a Hollywood movie’s audience, with the far larger DVD, ancillary markets (airplane/hotel/cable TV/etc.) to follow.
As it stands, GTA IV is forecast to sell just six million copies in its first week. Retailing at $60 or more per sale, that does translate to hundreds of millions of dollars — but the idea that this will have any substantial impact on the opening of “Iron Man” is a stretch. I’ll predict it now: This weekend, those six million GTA IV owners will be eclipsed by the 10 million-plus who will be lined up at U.S. theaters, and in the end, “Iron Man” will gross $70 million or more. But I’ll also predict that smackdown won’t quell the myth that video games are bigger than movies, which somehow remains more indestructible than Robert Downey Jr.’s career.
Image credit: rockstargames.com/IV/, ironmanmovie.marvel.com.
24 comments so far
9:39 AM PT
Considering Variety is reporting the movie made $60 million internationally last night alone ($30mil domestically), I get the sneaking suspicion you’re right. Plus the movie is really great…so word of mouth should coax out even those hardcore GTA fans anyways.
9:49 AM PT
Someone on the Internet uses facts to prove there point?
*Head Explodes*
your totally right, anyone who’s a hardcore fan will go see the movie and GTA won’t put much of a dent in it though the difference in half a million viewers can mean big things for the studio and making their projections…
10:41 AM PT
dude…Iron Man is Bad… It’s a powerful movie dude…
11:05 AM PT
Let’s not be ignorant here. GTA IV made about $170 million in 24 hours. Its expected to bring in 400 by the end of the week. C’mon now hush.
11:17 AM PT
They’re not competing for money — they’re competing for time.
1:49 PM PT
Hmmmm…let’s see…I bought GTA4 Tuesday. I went to see ‘Iron Man’ today. I must be some sort of frickin’ genius to figure out how to do both.
4:09 PM PT
Who cares about Iron Man? I want to see The Dark Knight! I haven’t been to the movie theater in a long time, even though I love movies. I can Netflix everything. I did buy GTA 4 on Tuesday, and it is a lot of fun. I think video games and movies are two different things, though. I don’t know why they have to be compared like this (I mean, I understand it to a point).
5:35 PM PT
I will choose Iron Man - 12 years old kids will have to make a hard decision. But I think that this weekend will end up with something like 80 millions for Iron Man.
Great Movie - Two Thumbs up
2:18 AM PT
Well if they are competing for time and not money, consider that GTA takes around 40 hours to finish. Iron Man takes just 2.
The point is, whilst gaming audiences are smaller, games are proving to be more profitable than films. GTA4 cost $100 mil to make, and grossed $186 mil in its first 24 hours. The highest opening day for any movie was for Spiderman 3, which made only a third of that - $59 mil. in it’s opening day.
Also consider that, at least in my case, GTA4 stopped not only me from seeing Iron Man, but a lot of my console-less friends who were more interested in playing my copy of GTA4 than heading to the movies.
6:20 AM PT
By the look of the packed 1:20pm and 2:20pm movie theater yesterday afternoon I think people are putting down their controllers and enjoying Iron Man. Especially those who grew up with the comic book.
Great movie and Robert Downey Jr. did a great job playing the eccentric Tony Stark.
6:24 AM PT
I don’t think GTAIV is screening in theatres or Iron-Man is available for gaming consoles…
6:25 AM PT
Bringing Tony Stark from the comic books to the big screen was Stan Lee’s best shot yet. Monitary comparision problem is regular movie tickets are $12 a peice, games are $40-60.
One game sold equals three movie tickets, each sell a million items of course GTA is going to make more money.
But Iron Man is so freaking cool…waiting to see the green and gold suit in a hopeful sequal.
8:05 AM PT
You can’t compare videogames to movies. Videogames can make a lot more yet movies have a wider audience. It won’t have a real impact. Regardless you still have to respect the fact that one game can/will make over 1 billion dollars in profit. So it makes no difference to me if Iron Man had 100 million viewings, plus DVD/BR sales.
8:05 AM PT
You can’t compare videogames to movies. Videogames can make a lot more yet movies have a wider audience. It won’t have a real impact. Regardless you still have to respect the fact that one game can/will make over 1 billion dollars in profit. So it makes no difference to me if Iron Man had 100 million viewings, plus DVD/BR sales. I’d rather develop a videogame than make a movie if were talking about profitablity,
6:36 PM PT
gta is the better than all films in the world
8:08 PM PT
I think GTA-IV can defeat “Iron Man”. Because the game GTA is cult. And this cult is older than film.
9:45 AM PT
you are actually sourcing vgchartz? This is shameful.
4:46 PM PT
?
12:02 AM PT
<em?Iron Man opening week: $100 million.
GTA4 opening week: $400 million.
‘Nuff said.
6:08 AM PT
[...] ieri, iar Grand Theft Auto IV (cel mai asteptat joc al anului) a fost lansat saptamana trecuta. Cei de la GigaOm fac o analiza interesanta fata de meciul “Iron Man vs. GTA 4″ la asa-zisul box-office psihic si fizic [...]
3:25 AM PT
gta gonna win ???? mayba iron man.
11:22 AM PT
GTA4 opening week sales hit $500 million.
4:06 PM PT
That was noted in the post, actually.
10:18 PM PT
GTA4 is NOT cutting into any movie proceeds! BUT the fact that GTA rakes in so much money, i believe, will get the movie studios to consider mergers with the video-gaming companies. It is inevitable. They could use each-other and greatly benefit each-other.
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