GigaOM

Before the WIMAX hype starts again…

Let’s not forget that the mobile ecosystem has been continually driven towards a single standard due to the market and economic benefits of volume. It is not about the fastest speed or the lowest cost network, it is about the largest technology standard pulling the first release of the best devices which in turn pulls customers. This applies to wireless as it did to the classic VHS/Beta standards battle. In wireless, it has been TDMA, CDMA, I-DEN, etc. all falling to the highest volume, best devices first GSM camp.

LTE is two years away. The vast majority of the large mobile carriers, GSM or CDMA, will go there. It is the natural, comfortable (as in by committee comfortable), and low risk step for them. For the first time we will have a real single global (*except for potentially some Chinese carrier(s)) mobile wireless network standard albeit at varying frequencies.

WIMAX will not stand a chance. If you are Apple and building the iPhone Lisa in 2011 would you build it for 802.16e growing to cover less than 1B- PoPs or LTE growing to cover 6B+ PoPs with multiple carriers per market? How about Nokia, RIM, SE, HTC, etc.?

Even Samsung, the leader in WIMAX devices, spends much more $ and produces much better GSM and CDMA devices than their small and fugly WIMAX set. They have much better market opportunity building UMTS/HSPA devices over the next 3-5 years than they will have building faster 802.16e devices.

My two bits…

Ok, I see a group of cablecos who might want to do something with WiMax and it makes sense. For them it would be possible to build on top of their existing networks. You need 40Mbit to the antenna to deliver 40Mbit from the antenna to the end user. In order for this to work you need a network that can deliver the 40 mbit and the cablecos have that (in urban areas). There is no mobile broadband without standard broadband.

However.. end-users want to be able to use their mobile broadband outside major urban areas too… And here lies the problem for the cablecos. they are geographically much more limited than the Bells.

Brough Turner recently mentioned how hard it is for mobile telco’s to deliver mobile broadband because of backhaul costs. This inspired me to blog about No mobile broadband without broadband. In the end it seems that a country like the US that is lagging in the roll out of wires will also lag in the roll out of wireless…

Regardless of all the technical mumbo-jumbo in the comments above, this is a way for cable to hedge their bets. I’d personally like to see a wireless world without proprietary cell networks, cable, landlines, satellite, etc. In a WiMax world, everything will be delivered over ip and this will be a big win for the consumer.

[...] and the “fight” between WiMAX and LTE. I’ll leave the first issue to other experts except to agree with Om Malik that the timing is appropriate given the recent 700 MHz spectrum wins by Verizon and AT&T. [...]

[...] the sixth-largest cable operator, would contribute $100 million. Gigaom called it the $3 billion WiMax Rescue Act. They’re plowing forward in spite of questions about the technology, including a failed trial [...]

[...] (Even though he probably shouldn’t be up late at night blogging, Om nevertheless put together a nice compilation of WiMax posts here.) [...]

WiMAX is not dead. Just DOA in USA. Device manufacturers have not been concerned about the US market for years. All the growth is in Europe, Asia, and India. Intel is already testing WiMAX networks in Spain. This tech is for the third world and the OLPC crowd with mesh networks.

Besides technology always overlaps. Mobile and wireless is no different. USA will be last to see WiMAX because of legacy technology, lack of innovation, and a grip by the duopoly of current telco and cable corporatists.

[...] skeptical, GigaOM addresses the story with more detail in: CableCos Join The $3 Billion U.S. WiMAX Rescue Act addthis_url = ‘http%3A%2F%2Ftech-talk.biz%2F2008%2F03%2F27%2Fwhy-we-need-wimax%2F’; addthis_title [...]

Very good comment from the Blog Administrator.
Just one remark, when you say this technology is for the third world, do you include Spain, Europe, Japan, Korea and Taiwan? Because in these places WiMAX is taking off, and if these are 3rd world, there must be a 4th or 5th world too.

But I agree that apart from 1st world countries, WiMAX makes a lot of sense for broadband access in emerging countries where fixed line penetration is very low: South East Asia, Africa and to some extent, some countries in South/Central America

It’s not surprising that cable-com would enter the wireless space. I believe cable-com has always felt that telecom’s entry into TV was deeply intrusive. Thus far, the only way they’ve been able to come up with the meager response by entering landline with VOIP. But to step into wireless, now that is a real retaliation!

I am a bit worried about the HW side though. Seems like the infrastructure suppliers are betting on LTE.

[...] an announcement about the $3 billion Sprint/Cable/Clearwire joint venture that Om has dubbed the U.S. Rescue WiMax Act, and pondering both the valuation of and chances for Motorola’s handset business, but there [...]

As per industry news, Major MSOs such as Time Warner and Comcast are in talks with Sprint and Clearwire to invest upto 1.5 Billion. There are other MSOs as well which are looking at investing and joining the bandwagon.The coming in of Cable MSOs in a WiMAX venture was only to be expected and has been in the air for some time now. The winning in the 700 MHz auction of the telecom majors such as Verizon and AT&T has also set the cat amongst the pigeons as to how these companies will leverage this very valuable broadcast spectrum.
Will it be using technologies such as WiMAX ( the profiles are yet to be developed for 700 MHz) or will they use it with mobile 3G technologies and FLO? Or other ways of using the bands with open access? These questions will be answered very soon.
In the meantime for those who have been left out in auctions, it is time to focus on new strategies. What can be more innovative than the Sprint and Clearwire WiMAX networks which have been in making for a while now? WiMAX networks do have clear advantages in providing QoS based connectivity for streaming applications as well as multicast channels. The MSOs need this sorely for VoD content as well as for enabling triple play services. They can also target a host of mobile devices which are Wimax enabled for video and multimedia applications.
With new Systems on Chip(SoC) with ultra low power consumption and conformance with Wireless ( 802.11n) as well as mobile WiMAX wave 2 certification profiles making a strong surge, the mobile WiMAX scene is set to be a witness to major changes. Many new applications and devices will get powered and the broadcast sector is set to be one of the largest gainers in this regard.

[...] possible route for a true quad-play service from Comcast would be some type of deal with Sprint and Clearwire over WiMAX, which has been rumored for a while. Comcast didn’t participate in the recent 700MHz auction, [...]

[...] of Oregon also snagged a Block B license. Comcast, Time Warner Cable & Brighthouse Networks are rumored to be exploring WiMAX venture with Sprint and Clearwire. Comcast recently hired Dave Williams, former CTO of O2 to [...]

[...] May 6, 2008 at 3:51 PM PT Comments (0) You can all Xohm now — and call it Clearwire. The much talked about WiMAX joint venture between Clearwire and Sprint Nextel is going to happen and the news is going to [...]