Comments on: Google’s Achilles Heel http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/ Trusted Insights and Conversations on the Next Wave of Technology Thu, 26 Nov 2009 02:03:27 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: SEO Daily Reading - Issue 15 « Internet Marketing Blog http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-974351 SEO Daily Reading - Issue 15 « Internet Marketing Blog Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:19:58 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-974351 <p>[...] Google’s Achilles Heel — Does Google Have an Achilles Heel? Gigaom Seem to Think So [...]</p> [...] Google’s Achilles Heel — Does Google Have an Achilles Heel? Gigaom Seem to Think So [...]

]]> By: Saad Fazil http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-944610 Saad Fazil Wed, 20 May 2009 16:58:23 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-944610 <p>In Q1 2009, Google's revenue was as follows:</p> <p>(99% from ads) 3.7B Google.com 1.6B Network ~100m licensing</p> <p>Following are the top Google properties:</p> <p>1 www.google.com 134M 2 maps.google.com 51M 3 images.google.com 48M 4 mail.google.com 32M 5 video.google.com 14M 6 news.google.com 13M 7 clients1.google.com 12M</p> <h2>8 books.google.com 8M</h2> <p>Total monthly unique users ~ 500M</p> <p>Google Books makes money from ads just as most other Google properties do.</p> <p>If we were to make a very rough guess from the traffic numbers above =></p> <p>Google Books ~ 2% of 3.7B = 74M</p> <p>Note that I have assumed that eCPM of all Google properties is the same.. a highly inaccurate assumption. However, since Google Books is a "vertical", we should expect its CPM to be higher than other Google properties. So 74M a quarter (or $300m) seems like a conservative estimate.</p> <p>Now let's take Kayak - top travel search engine.</p> <p>Kayak's monthly unique users = ~6mm</p> <p>Annual revenue ~ $150mm ~50% comes from ads.. => $75mm</p> <p>Two conclusions from the numbers above.</p> <p>(i) Apparently Google is doing pretty OK on its own. Google Books being an average product at best is getting higher CPM than Kayak, a specialist in travel search.</p> <p>If Google buys Kayak, it could actually drive up their CPM?</p> <p>(ii) Online jobs market was ~6B in 2007 ( http://www.sramanamitra.com/2007/07/25/facebooks-monetization-strategy-part-1/ ) . But most of the pie is coming from subscriptions etc. and not just from ads. So even if Google were to enter a vertical, it would be taking only part of the slice as its expertise is really in search and advertising and not transaction handling.. of course unless it changes it focus.</p> In Q1 2009, Google’s revenue was as follows:

(99% from ads) 3.7B Google.com 1.6B Network ~100m licensing

Following are the top Google properties:

1 http://www.google.com 134M 2 maps.google.com 51M 3 images.google.com 48M 4 mail.google.com 32M 5 video.google.com 14M 6 news.google.com 13M 7 clients1.google.com 12M

8 books.google.com 8M

Total monthly unique users ~ 500M

Google Books makes money from ads just as most other Google properties do.

If we were to make a very rough guess from the traffic numbers above =>

Google Books ~ 2% of 3.7B = 74M

Note that I have assumed that eCPM of all Google properties is the same.. a highly inaccurate assumption. However, since Google Books is a “vertical”, we should expect its CPM to be higher than other Google properties. So 74M a quarter (or $300m) seems like a conservative estimate.

Now let’s take Kayak – top travel search engine.

Kayak’s monthly unique users = ~6mm

Annual revenue ~ $150mm ~50% comes from ads.. => $75mm

Two conclusions from the numbers above.

(i) Apparently Google is doing pretty OK on its own. Google Books being an average product at best is getting higher CPM than Kayak, a specialist in travel search.

If Google buys Kayak, it could actually drive up their CPM?

(ii) Online jobs market was ~6B in 2007 ( http://www.sramanamitra.com/2007/07/25/facebooks-monetization-strategy-part-1/ ) . But most of the pie is coming from subscriptions etc. and not just from ads. So even if Google were to enter a vertical, it would be taking only part of the slice as its expertise is really in search and advertising and not transaction handling.. of course unless it changes it focus.

]]> By: Deal Radar 2009: Enquisite | Sramana Mitra on Strategy http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-944463 Deal Radar 2009: Enquisite | Sramana Mitra on Strategy Tue, 19 May 2009 20:11:43 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-944463 <p>[...] Forbes Column 2008: The Gap In Google’s Defenses Yahoo, Please Put Up A Fight (My guest article at GigaOm) Google’s Achilles Heel (Another of my guest posts on GigaOm) [...]</p> [...] Forbes Column 2008: The Gap In Google’s Defenses Yahoo, Please Put Up A Fight (My guest article at GigaOm) Google’s Achilles Heel (Another of my guest posts on GigaOm) [...]

]]> By: Andres http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-898397 Andres Mon, 08 Sep 2008 18:27:37 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-898397 <p>Coexistence of vertical and horizontal search is fully sustainable on the long term. I hardly believe people would one day cease to use generalist Search Engines like Google to adopt a Vertical Search Engine (VSE) for each one of their daily search purposes (jobs,cooking,music). People will always keep on using booth and the best.</p> <p>Horizontal SEs will always have one leap ahead as they remain the main jump points to any VSEs. Even if share of useful VSE propositions will continue to rise, their usage is doomed to be in most cases occasional. Financially, VSEs revenue models are very precarious until critical mass is reachable while Google on the other hand is becoming more and more context sensitive,vertical and profitable.</p> <p>Ultimately, no VSE could ever pose a serious threat to Google simply because if this was the case Google would diligently buy this contender right way. Missing the opportunity to be powered by Google innovation and financial engine is an offer no VSE could ever refuse!</p> Coexistence of vertical and horizontal search is fully sustainable on the long term. I hardly believe people would one day cease to use generalist Search Engines like Google to adopt a Vertical Search Engine (VSE) for each one of their daily search purposes (jobs,cooking,music). People will always keep on using booth and the best.

Horizontal SEs will always have one leap ahead as they remain the main jump points to any VSEs. Even if share of useful VSE propositions will continue to rise, their usage is doomed to be in most cases occasional. Financially, VSEs revenue models are very precarious until critical mass is reachable while Google on the other hand is becoming more and more context sensitive,vertical and profitable.

Ultimately, no VSE could ever pose a serious threat to Google simply because if this was the case Google would diligently buy this contender right way. Missing the opportunity to be powered by Google innovation and financial engine is an offer no VSE could ever refuse!

]]> By: Espectativas de evolución en los búscadores : La Cofa - Blog de Vigilancia Tecnológica http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-878333 Espectativas de evolución en los búscadores : La Cofa - Blog de Vigilancia Tecnológica Wed, 14 May 2008 13:45:53 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-878333 <p>[...] Gigaom (”Google’s Achilles Heel“) [...]</p> [...] Gigaom (”Google’s Achilles Heel“) [...]

]]> By: Surinder Puri http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-864823 Surinder Puri Sat, 08 Mar 2008 19:43:50 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-864823 <p>Too much sensational reporting/blogging... If I take the thought to its logical conclusion then simple picture appears... If these vertical searches are successful in the future then there is a good chance they'll be bought by google. Author likes to sensationalize just about everything without grasping deeper understandings of such issues. We've all heard before how IBM was supposed to be dead becuase Microsoft was on the rise. How Microsoft was supposed to bite the dust becuase google ruled the internet etc. etc. They all missed one key detail - CASH. These companies had/have more cash sitting on their balance sheets than many countries. IBM is fine (btw, they are second largest software company in the world, or is it third, annual software revenues app. $18 Billion), they are still selling a lot of mainframes though, Microsoft is doing well, and Google will continue to do well for a very long time to come. What is likely to happen is emergence of a new technology beyond search on the internet, that we haven't thought of yet...</p> Too much sensational reporting/blogging… If I take the thought to its logical conclusion then simple picture appears… If these vertical searches are successful in the future then there is a good chance they’ll be bought by google. Author likes to sensationalize just about everything without grasping deeper understandings of such issues. We’ve all heard before how IBM was supposed to be dead becuase Microsoft was on the rise. How Microsoft was supposed to bite the dust becuase google ruled the internet etc. etc. They all missed one key detail – CASH. These companies had/have more cash sitting on their balance sheets than many countries. IBM is fine (btw, they are second largest software company in the world, or is it third, annual software revenues app. $18 Billion), they are still selling a lot of mainframes though, Microsoft is doing well, and Google will continue to do well for a very long time to come. What is likely to happen is emergence of a new technology beyond search on the internet, that we haven’t thought of yet…

]]> By: MyStrands Blog » Web 3.0 is about recommendation and personalisation http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-860317 MyStrands Blog » Web 3.0 is about recommendation and personalisation Thu, 07 Feb 2008 01:05:53 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-860317 <p>[...] Mitra has also covered the topic several times, and she recently described Web 3.0 as a summation of context, community, commerce, content, vertical search and [...]</p> [...] Mitra has also covered the topic several times, and she recently described Web 3.0 as a summation of context, community, commerce, content, vertical search and [...]

]]> By: Alt Search Engines » Blog Archive » Zvents makes Local Search pop! http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-858983 Alt Search Engines » Blog Archive » Zvents makes Local Search pop! Thu, 31 Jan 2008 01:40:39 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-858983 <p>[...] course, about Vertical Search engines - the writer and tech strategist Sramana Mitra considers them Google’s Achilles heel and Profy.com’s Cyndy Aleo-Carreira seems to agree. This blog also has long held the position [...]</p> [...] course, about Vertical Search engines – the writer and tech strategist Sramana Mitra considers them Google’s Achilles heel and Profy.com’s Cyndy Aleo-Carreira seems to agree. This blog also has long held the position [...]

]]> By: Google Tutor http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-857145 Google Tutor Sat, 19 Jan 2008 18:52:33 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-857145 <p>great post, but I can't help but think Google can knock off a lot of these players with a 'good enough' automated solution to many of these verticals.</p> great post, but I can’t help but think Google can knock off a lot of these players with a ‘good enough’ automated solution to many of these verticals.

]]> By: Girija http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-856934 Girija Thu, 17 Jan 2008 23:51:36 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-856934 <p>Of all the companies, only Indeed.com is worth mentioning.Jobster will make its way to the deadpool soon. I also ran into an interesting site the other day- Odinjobs(www.odinjobs.com). They claim to be even more specialized for IT jobs. Interesting about them is their match engine that reverse matches your resume to all the jobs based on content.</p> Of all the companies, only Indeed.com is worth mentioning.Jobster will make its way to the deadpool soon. I also ran into an interesting site the other day- Odinjobs(www.odinjobs.com). They claim to be even more specialized for IT jobs. Interesting about them is their match engine that reverse matches your resume to all the jobs based on content.

]]> By: Akshay Jain http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-855908 Akshay Jain Thu, 17 Jan 2008 10:50:06 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-855908 <p>While on the face of it the assumption looks proper however I tend to disagee with it</p> <ol> <li><p>Money would constantly keep on pouring in these vertical search engines but then there would be so many of them and I ofcourse don't know which one to go to for what. Maybe I would even look for that information on Google</p></li> <li><p>It is quite naive to assume that Google is not doing something in this direction as well !!</p></li> <li><p>With a whole lot of suites and apps that GOogle is bringing affecting our day-to-day lives I wonder how anyone would be able to escape them. I mean I use Windows as my OS and all the other things online seems to be google from Gmail to iGoogle to Notebook. Why do I need to go and signup at various places, remember various usernames etc.</p></li> </ol> <p>I really feel Google will be even bigger in time to come. Internet has only started penetrating to developing and under-developed countries and Google would be the #1 place where every Internet User Goes to. There apps are very simple to use and works great !!</p> While on the face of it the assumption looks proper however I tend to disagee with it

  1. Money would constantly keep on pouring in these vertical search engines but then there would be so many of them and I ofcourse don’t know which one to go to for what. Maybe I would even look for that information on Google

  2. It is quite naive to assume that Google is not doing something in this direction as well !!

  3. With a whole lot of suites and apps that GOogle is bringing affecting our day-to-day lives I wonder how anyone would be able to escape them. I mean I use Windows as my OS and all the other things online seems to be google from Gmail to iGoogle to Notebook. Why do I need to go and signup at various places, remember various usernames etc.

I really feel Google will be even bigger in time to come. Internet has only started penetrating to developing and under-developed countries and Google would be the #1 place where every Internet User Goes to. There apps are very simple to use and works great !!

]]> By: links for 2008-01-17 « Brandopia http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-855116 links for 2008-01-17 « Brandopia Thu, 17 Jan 2008 00:44:17 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-855116 <p>[...] Google’s Achilles Heel Great posting on the vulnerabilities of Google’s strategy. (tags: Google search strategy) [...]</p> [...] Google’s Achilles Heel Great posting on the vulnerabilities of Google’s strategy. (tags: Google search strategy) [...]

]]> By: Busca Local e Busca Vertical « Sites de Busca, Web & Inovação « MigLog http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-855098 Busca Local e Busca Vertical « Sites de Busca, Web & Inovação « MigLog Thu, 17 Jan 2008 00:32:46 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-855098 <p>[...] assunto que gostaria de destacar hoje aqui é um artigo de Sramana Mitra no GigaOM sobre o calcanhar de Aquiles do Google. Trata-se da difusão das buscas verticais ou especializadas nos Estados Unidos e a tendência de [...]</p> [...] assunto que gostaria de destacar hoje aqui é um artigo de Sramana Mitra no GigaOM sobre o calcanhar de Aquiles do Google. Trata-se da difusão das buscas verticais ou especializadas nos Estados Unidos e a tendência de [...]

]]> By: Ames Tiedeman http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-853871 Ames Tiedeman Wed, 16 Jan 2008 16:05:47 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-853871 <p>Idea Tagger:</p> <p>Excellent points. Perhaps some of the things you are talking about will happen.</p> Idea Tagger:

Excellent points. Perhaps some of the things you are talking about will happen.

]]> By: A.T. http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-853754 A.T. Wed, 16 Jan 2008 14:39:30 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-853754 <p>ahem... check your facts - I went straight to maps.google.com , switched to "find businesses", typed "software engineering jobs" in left field, and "Palo-Alto, California" in right (location) field, and clicked on search. Guess what I got...</p> ahem… check your facts – I went straight to maps.google.com , switched to “find businesses”, typed “software engineering jobs” in left field, and “Palo-Alto, California” in right (location) field, and clicked on search. Guess what I got…

]]> By: Bob http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-853732 Bob Wed, 16 Jan 2008 14:28:37 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2008/01/15/google%e2%80%99s-achilles-heel/#comment-853732 <p>The revenue made in the online recruitment market will shift from the job posting/advertising model as job postings become more of a commodity to charging a lot more to access a resume/candidate (active or passive) database.</p> The revenue made in the online recruitment market will shift from the job posting/advertising model as job postings become more of a commodity to charging a lot more to access a resume/candidate (active or passive) database.

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