I understand that you’re trying to make some broad and bold predictions, but seriously, use some accurate and RELEVANT statistics to backup your arguments.

I think you could have a pretty strong argument here, but you’re certainly not making it. Your argument appears to be (correct me if I’m mistaken):
3rd party developers (software/hardware/services) will base their product decisions on the number of purchased consoles.

You don’t think that 3rd party developers use anything else?
Attachment rates: There are SIGNIFICANT differences in attachment rates between the Wii and the 360/PS3 that you are completely ignoring.
Audience demographics: The Wii’s broader market appeal also means that your audience has a wider array of interests. Most games won’t appeal to ALL of them, only to a subset. 360/PS3 audiences are more well-defined and easier for a developer to target.
Game cost/unit: I confess I don’t know how much the 3rd party developer pays to each of the major console makers. I do know that Wii games sell for less (they purchased the Wii for less, they expect the games to cost less).
Game development costs: This has to be significantly lower for a Wii-exclusive game, although I suspect that equation changes for multiplatform titles (e.g. 360/PC).
(to name a few. Basically - how many units will we sell, how much will we spend to develop/market, and how much margin? and very importantly, how accurately can we predict this outcome?)

In other words, there is no magic tipping point based on the number of consoles sold, because 3rd party developers are (generally) a little smarter than this.

So - again, the Wii is doing a great job of showing the potential of mass-market game design. And the 360, while trying to make some moves in that direction, is so far doing a poor job of broadening it’s appeal (Arcade Edition? Please). But they are far from out of the game.

In any event, I’ve done a poor job of backing up my points with real stats either. Then again, I’m not getting paid for any of this.

I would really enjoy reading a more thoughtful and well-researched post from you on this same topic.

I would never spend $40-$60 for a game that I might not like or play over a weekend but a Game in the Mail subscrption service will work .the same can be said for Console online services I would rather pay a monthy subscription where I can play a certain amount of games at a time than buying downloadable games I might only play a few times .

Problem with the Browser is most Mums and Dads are not going to browse the internet on thier TV or see the value of paying $5 for the browser if they already have a computer/s .Also the Wii Browser only supports Flash 7 because Abode wont relese the SDK for Flash 9 so goes the Kids Sites like Nick.com ,Disney and Cartoon Network wont work .This also leaves out sites like HULU which would be great on the Wii.

Flash 9 on the Wii would have many web developers creating sites specifically for the Wii and Wii Remote .

Personaly I think the Joost Interface is perfectly suited for the Wii but it has been pointed to me by several Joost developers the Wii is too underpowered for any current versions of Joost to work,maybe they need a version of Joost that isnt so resource hungry .

With a severe lack of quality games for the Wii (and 3rd party developers really not enjoying making games for the Wii), this Christmas will be the Wii’s last hoorah. It’s hit its peak. And quite frankly, I don’t even enjoy playing my Wii, nor do my friends who bought one in the last year. Overhyped, under-delivered.

Who wants a White Playstation 3? cause these things are sexy as.
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