Comments on: Google Trends Predicts Hillary as Dem Nominee http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/ The Business of Technology Thu, 04 Dec 2008 04:12:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU hourly 1 By: Google Trends is Behind the Curve « Specific Marketing http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-888602 Google Trends is Behind the Curve « Specific Marketing Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:17:21 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-888602 [...] is sometime heralded as a tool that can help to predict the outcome of future events. I have said before that I think this is unlikely to work, and from what I found today, I believe this even more [...] [...] is sometime heralded as a tool that can help to predict the outcome of future events. I have said before that I think this is unlikely to work, and from what I found today, I believe this even more [...]

]]> By: Matt Peskett http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-860006 Matt Peskett Tue, 05 Feb 2008 11:26:30 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-860006 <p>Looks like it might be time to revisit the Google Trends data, Obama is now the leading search results winner. http://www.firetop.co.uk/2008/02/04/barack-obama-to-win-super-tuesday/</p> Looks like it might be time to revisit the Google Trends data, Obama is now the leading search results winner.
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]]> By: tomo http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-747464 tomo Thu, 06 Dec 2007 18:36:52 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-747464 <p>I have been tracking the candidates based on various metrics over at this post: http://thetomoreport.blogspot.com/2007/11/2008-presidential-primary-data-tracker.html</p> <p>The democrat side the equation seems to be fairly uniform (with Clinton basically winning out in most metrics). The republican side is completely up for grabs...</p> I have been tracking the candidates based on various metrics over at this post: (link)

The democrat side the equation seems to be fairly uniform (with Clinton basically winning out in most metrics). The republican side is completely up for grabs…

]]> By: Google trends predict Ron Paul beating Hilary | Global Toad News http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-747152 Google trends predict Ron Paul beating Hilary | Global Toad News Thu, 06 Dec 2007 15:57:18 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-747152 <p>[...] Trend Lines predict Ron Paul will beat Hillary, from his article: According to a GigaOm article Google Trends Predicts Hillary as Dem Nominee, “current Google trend lines show Clinton beating Obama and Edwards.” Unfortunately they [...]</p> [...] Trend Lines predict Ron Paul will beat Hillary, from his article: According to a GigaOm article Google Trends Predicts Hillary as Dem Nominee, “current Google trend lines show Clinton beating Obama and Edwards.” Unfortunately they [...]

]]> By: The Beta Stage » Blog Archive » Google Brags That Trends is a Predictor of Elections, and I’m Unconvinced (With Evidence) http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-747128 The Beta Stage » Blog Archive » Google Brags That Trends is a Predictor of Elections, and I’m Unconvinced (With Evidence) Thu, 06 Dec 2007 15:49:07 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-747128 <p>[...] came across an interesting post yesterday written by GigaOM’s Anne Zelenka, entitled “Google Trends Predicts Hillary as Dem Nominee.”  The basic gist of it is that on a Tuesday webcast, Google’s Marissa Mayer, VP of [...]</p> [...] came across an interesting post yesterday written by GigaOM’s Anne Zelenka, entitled “Google Trends Predicts Hillary as Dem Nominee.”  The basic gist of it is that on a Tuesday webcast, Google’s Marissa Mayer, VP of [...]

]]> By: Tim Probst http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-746546 Tim Probst Thu, 06 Dec 2007 11:45:24 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-746546 <p>I'm not sure interest alone can predict an election, but unfortunately, name recognition does play a huge role in American politics so it's possible Google Trends has a chance.</p> <p>Another option that has been incredibly accurate over the years is <a href="http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/" rel="nofollow">The Iowa Electronic Markets</a> from The University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. The markets have shown much greater accurately than the polls you'll see in newspapers and on television. The main reason for this is because they are real-money markets. People tend to be a little more honest with themselves when their hard earned money is involved.</p> I’m not sure interest alone can predict an election, but unfortunately, name recognition does play a huge role in American politics so it’s possible Google Trends has a chance.

Another option that has been incredibly accurate over the years is The Iowa Electronic Markets from The University of Iowa Tippie College of Business. The markets have shown much greater accurately than the polls you’ll see in newspapers and on television. The main reason for this is because they are real-money markets. People tend to be a little more honest with themselves when their hard earned money is involved.

]]> By: John http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-745992 John Thu, 06 Dec 2007 06:33:54 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-745992 <p>By this measure Ron Paul will be president. He is far and away the most searched/popular candidate according to Google trends, Tech President, Technorati, Alexa and so on.</p> By this measure Ron Paul will be president. He is far and away the most searched/popular candidate according to Google trends, Tech President, Technorati, Alexa and so on.

]]> By: Rajeev Hirani http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-745886 Rajeev Hirani Thu, 06 Dec 2007 05:22:58 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-745886 <p>Hey thanks for this. I discovered about google trends through your blog. Its interesting. Btw one question, do they take into account misspelled searches too? Like in analytics they do not. Hirani http://www.goforads.com</p> Hey thanks for this. I discovered about google trends through your blog. Its interesting. Btw one question, do they take into account misspelled searches too? Like in analytics they do not.
Hirani
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]]> By: ricky http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744872 ricky Wed, 05 Dec 2007 20:46:45 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744872 <p>Anne - I suspect your culling of only "USA" will not include military personnel abroad -- and am curious what would then happen to the stats; have these folks traded what is their traditional pro-GOP / anti-Clinton (Bill AND Hillary) play for a pro-Hillary get us out of Iraq play ?</p> Anne -
I suspect your culling of only “USA” will not include military personnel abroad — and am curious what would then happen to the stats; have these folks traded what is their traditional pro-GOP / anti-Clinton (Bill AND Hillary) play for a pro-Hillary get us out of Iraq play ?

]]> By: James Urquhart http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744716 James Urquhart Wed, 05 Dec 2007 19:09:31 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744716 <p>Hey, given the success Trends has had in predicting the future, I just figured out what I am always going to play in "rock, paper, scissors"!</p> <p>http://servicelevelautomation.blogspot.com/2007/12/off-topic-its-official-rock-beats-paper.html</p> Hey, given the success Trends has had in predicting the future, I just figured out what I am always going to play in “rock, paper, scissors”!

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]]> By: GeorgeZ http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744698 GeorgeZ Wed, 05 Dec 2007 19:02:39 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744698 <p>@Anne Zelenka For arguments sake, you need to take a closer to your search of HILARY http://www.google.com/trends?q=hilary+%7C+hillary%2C+obama</p> <p>the majority of results come form countries below</p> <ol> <li><p>Venezuela</p></li> <li><p>New Zealand</p></li> <li><p>Mexico</p></li> <li><p>Canada</p></li> <li><p>Australia</p></li> </ol> <p>You need to exclude those countries and run the search string properly within the USA, obviously only americans can vote and obviously we need to add all mispells of names of both candidates</p> <p>hilary | hillary | hillary clinton | senator hillary clinton, obama | barack obama | barac obama | barak obama | barrack obama</p> <p>http://www.google.com/trends?q=hilary%2C+hillary%2C+obama&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=all&sort=0</p> @Anne Zelenka
For arguments sake, you need to take a closer to your search of HILARY
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the majority of results come form countries below

  1. Venezuela

  2. New Zealand

  3. Mexico

  4. Canada

  5. Australia

You need to exclude those countries and run the search string properly within the USA, obviously only americans can vote and obviously we need to add all mispells of names of both candidates

hilary | hillary | hillary clinton | senator hillary clinton, obama | barack obama | barac obama | barak obama | barrack obama

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]]> By: Anne Zelenka http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744619 Anne Zelenka Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:25:49 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744619 <p>@GeorgeZ: How many people know that Hillary is spelled that way and not "hilary"?</p> <p>How about this: "hilary" or "hillary" (use a vertical bar for or) vs. "Obama"</p> <p>http://www.google.com/trends?q=hilary+%7C+hillary%2C+obama</p> <p>Ha! She wins!</p> <p>Is that what we're arguing about? ;)</p> @GeorgeZ: How many people know that Hillary is spelled that way and not “hilary”?

How about this: “hilary” or “hillary” (use a vertical bar for or) vs. “Obama”

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Ha! She wins!

Is that what we’re arguing about? ;)

]]> By: Eric Soubiron http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744615 Eric Soubiron Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:24:52 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744615 <p>I totally agree with the majority of the comments. Google, is not in position to predict the result of the elections. Even if the track record indicated is in Google's favor. Bush vs Kerry I would have predicted it also.</p> I totally agree with the majority of the comments. Google, is not in position to predict the result of the elections. Even if the track record indicated is in Google’s favor. Bush vs Kerry I would have predicted it also.

]]> By: GeorgeZ http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744603 GeorgeZ Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:19:25 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744603 <p>@Anne Zelenka</p> <p>Yes it is speculation, but then again speculation drives are economy</p> <p>lets try this one "hillary" and "Obama"</p> <p>http://www.google.com/trends?q=%22hillary%22%2C+%22obama%22&ctab=0&geo=US&geor=all&date=all&sort=0</p> @Anne Zelenka

Yes it is speculation, but then again speculation drives are economy

lets try this one “hillary” and “Obama”

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]]> By: Aswath http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744599 Aswath Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:17:29 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744599 <p>Supposing Google has a control group that they monitor before and after, get their disposition and then project to the whole search group, then they can predict what the "posterior" (I hope this doesn't vector into something else) distribution. They can become the next Gallop, with so much data they are sitting and so many PhDs. Does the webcast hint at anything like this? Is there a link to that webcast?</p> Supposing Google has a control group that they monitor before and after, get their disposition and then project to the whole search group, then they can predict what the “posterior” (I hope this doesn’t vector into something else) distribution. They can become the next Gallop, with so much data they are sitting and so many PhDs. Does the webcast hint at anything like this? Is there a link to that webcast?

]]> By: theregoesdave http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744578 theregoesdave Wed, 05 Dec 2007 18:07:15 +0000 http://gigaom.com/2007/12/05/google-trends-predicts-hillary-as-demo-nominee/#comment-744578 <p>Are you sure that it's not just a fluke that can be attributed to Christmas shoppers making a mad rush for their Hilary Clinton nutcrackers? http://hillarynutcracker.com/completelynuts.html</p> Are you sure that it’s not just a fluke that can be attributed to Christmas shoppers making a mad rush for their Hilary Clinton nutcrackers?
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