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Summary:

Forrester has the most bullish estimate yet for online video advertising spending in the U.S.: $7.1 billion by 2012. That’s after a 72 percent compound annual growth rate for the next five years, building on total spending of $471 million this year. That tops eMarketer’s July […]

Forrester has the most bullish estimate yet for online video advertising spending in the U.S.: $7.1 billion by 2012. That’s after a 72 percent compound annual growth rate for the next five years, building on total spending of $471 million this year.

forrestervideoads.jpg

That tops eMarketer’s July estimate that online video advertising would be worth $4.3 billion in 2011 — by Forrester’s growth curve (see chart above), revenues would already have already passed the $5 billion mark by then. Another contrast: eMarketer’s estimate depended on monster growth early on — an 89 percent growth rate to $775 million in 2007 — followed by 40 percent growth through the next five years.

Forrester analyst Shar VanBoskirk praised the emergence of “customer-centric” ad formats like the overlays used by VideoEgg, YouTube and others, which, rather than forcing an ad in their video streams, allow viewers to decide if and when to pause a video to watch an ad. She wrote,

Vanguard marketers and brand mainstreamers, including Nike, Disney, and Nestle, are already advertising
with VideoEgg — and with good reason. YouTube tests show that video overlays generate five
to 10 times more clicks than banner ads.

Forrester breaks down its forecast by where the revenue’s coming from — retail and wholesale trade will be the largest category, says the firm — but what about where the revenue goes? At the Daily Reel conference we attended in Hollywood last week, YouTube’s head of monetization, Shashi Seth, estimated that $5 million to $10 million in revenue shares were paid out this year to users for creating video content. He said he expected that number to grow significantly:

That is where I think Internet video is headed — catering to the long tail, not only from a consumption perspective, but from an advertising and marketing perspective.

Others are less enthusiastic about users and/or non-professionals getting a piece of the action. Screen Digest, which hasn’t been particularly enthusiastic about video revenues in general, thinks user-generated video will be worth $956 million in 2011. iSuppli is putting its money on professionally produced video, predicting revenues will hit $5.9 billion in 2011.

Thanks to Contentinople for the link to the Forrester report, which we had missed when it came out last month. The chart and quotes above are taken from a courtesy copy of the report sent to us by Forrester.

  1. [...] Forrester: $7.1B in Online Video Ads by 2012 « NewTeeVee “That is where I think Internet video is headed — catering to the long tail, not only from a consumption perspective, but from an advertising and marketing perspective.” – YouTube’s head of monetization: Shashi Seth (tags: youtube video advertising forrester research newteevee aweli longtail) [...]

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  2. Do you mind if I repost for users of reelseo.com with full credit and linkback?

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  3. [...] Liz Gannes added an interesting post today on Forrester: $7.1B in Online Video Ads by 2012.Here’s a small reading:At the Daily Reel conference we attended in Hollywood last week, YouTube’s head of monetization, Shashi Seth, estimated that $5 million to $10 million in revenue shares were paid out this year to users for creating video content. … [...]

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  4. Selling online video advertising is easy. Renewing those ad contracts will be tough without any way to measure effectiveness. It’s the same old problem.

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  5. Fascinating numbers. Great write up, Liz.

    Nielsen Online is reporting that TV, video & movie content consumption online almost doubled in the UK between September 2006 and September 2007.

    Here’s a link to a summary post on the research on Real Fresh TV:
    http://www.realfresh.tv/tv-video-movie-content-consumption-online-almost-doubles-in-the-uk/

    You can download the report (PDF) from Nielsen here:
    http://www.netratings.com/pr/pr_071106_2_UK.pdf

    Would be really interesting to know what type of online video content those video ad projections are being thrown up against.

    Is it User Generated Content? aka YouTube, Veoh, Daily Motion etc
    or
    Professionally created content? aka Hulu, Joost etc

    Exciting news all the same.

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  6. [...] Forrester: $7.1B in Online Video Ads by 2012 « NewTeeVee – Nov 2007 (tags: advertising business video) [...]

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  7. I agree.
    Internet video is going to be a big winner for businesses
    Here’s some examples of what they can do for a website
    http://www.tvwebpro.com

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  8. [...] households stream TV broadcasts online, according to TNS and the Conference Board. Forrester recently estimated that total U.S. online video advertising spending would amount to $471 million in 2007 (The FT [...]

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  9. [...] great article on newteevee.com, they stated that Forrester has the most bullish estimate yet for online video advertising spending [...]

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  10. [...] to be clear, nobody thinks there’s much money in online video, at least not yet. The best estimates put revenue from online video advertising at around $1 billion this year, and paid [...]

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