Comments on: iPhone and the analyst delusions

By: hardmanb

hardmanb — Thu, 26 Jul 2007 02:54:16 +0000

The last two times I bought a cellphone, from Cingular and Verizon, I was in the office for more than 30 minutes each time.

For Apple to sell 250,000+ new model cellphones and/or AT&T to activate 147,000 cellphones (including 40% carrier switches)...in 30 hours. I'd like to see any other new phone match that total in 30 hours.

As to projections, Steve Jobs announced Apple's goals of 200,000 for the first WEEKEND (Sunday sales were not reported in the quarterly report, only the first 30 hours of the weekend); and a goal of 1 million by the end of year (2007) and ten million by the end of 2008. This would amount to about 1% of the US cellphone market for a new phone and manufacturer (6% of the smartphone market).

I suspect that Apple has already sold over 1 million...reaching their end of year goal in less than one month. A record-breaking success story.

Why all the "failure" talk? To me, it's just hype and FUD.

By: GigaOM The iPhone’s Sanity Check, iPod Sales Falling? «

GigaOM The iPhone’s Sanity Check, iPod Sales Falling? « — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 23:08:24 +0000

[...] at 2:49 PM PT | No comments iPhone’s first weekend didn’t turn out to be as hot as Wall Street analysts had predicted. The sales weren’t 700,000 or 500,000. Or 146,000 for that matter, as AT&T’s [...]

By: Daily links - 26.07.2007 : TrendPlex

Daily links - 26.07.2007 : TrendPlex — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 21:53:27 +0000

[...] iPhone and the analyst delusions [...]

By: PhoneDifferent

PhoneDifferent — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 13:45:01 +0000

Apple Stock Dip, "Disappointing" Activations

There's a spate of stories (my favorite was from Om Malik) out there about the dip in AAPL stock, how analysts originally thought there were up to 700,000 activations, but AT&T's Q3 earnings report indicated a different story, 146,000 activations...

By: Tech / Tunes links 7.25.07 – Stinking of hair dye and ammonia « The ListeNerd

Wed, 25 Jul 2007 12:44:37 +0000

[...] few days, only 146k were actually bought. That’s still a lot of super-expensive phones. [via] *A Burger King promo is offering DRM-free downloads from EMI’s catalog. [via] *List of the [...]

By: David Mackey

David Mackey — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 02:37:42 +0000

Nowhere near as high as the hype - but still very impressive.

By: Matthew Bellows

Matthew Bellows — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 02:08:05 +0000

Even if the iPhone disappoints some, it's still a watershed event in wireless. At the lowest end of the estimates, 140k sales in two days is by far the best selling phone opening ever. The manufacturer/carrier relationship that Apple struck here is groundbreaking. And the reduction in AT&T churn to a record low 1.6% has to be at least partially attributed to the iPhone.

By: Jon

Jon — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 02:03:11 +0000

Proof, if any were necessary, that stock analysts were put on this earth to make astrologers look good.

By: reinharden

reinharden — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 01:32:04 +0000

What I find most amusing is the number of analysts who've forgotten that they were all predicting how many iPhones would sell in the first weekend.

AT&T provided the number of phones that were activated between 6 PM Eastern time Friday and midnight Eastern time Saturday. Which means that they're not reflecting the phones sold on Sunday.

Perhaps after Apple's earnings announcement, the analysts will remember that Sunday was part of the weekend. ;-)

reinharden

By: MacObsession

MacObsession — Wed, 25 Jul 2007 00:21:53 +0000

140,000 Apple iPhones activated in June

Apple’s partner for the Apple iPhone, AT&T, saw an immediate positive impact from the collaboration for last quarter. AT&T just released their previous quarter results: revenues up 86.7%, profits up 61%. Within just 1.25 days (s...

By: herman manfred

herman manfred — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 22:58:36 +0000

As perhaps too subtly noted by "peter" way up there in the 2nd comment, "activations" is not the same as "sales", especially with (1) the iPhone that can be and is encouraged to be activated away from the sales location - like at home, and (2) there was a major kludge in the activation process (see that Saturday's screaming headlines) and (3) there was only 1+ days left in that quarter for numbers to be generated for in the first place. Anything done after "accounting close", whatever THAT is for AT&T of that weekend (Saturday at 18:00?, midnight? what?), was not counted in the reported quarter. You know, come home from shopping on Saturday, say "I'll get to it in a bit, time to eat!", come back late from eating and say "I'll do it tomorrow" and...tada! Wrong Quarter!

That is to say, the NEXT report ought to be dynamite!

Or Apple's report tomorrow on actual sales, not activations.

By: Andrew

Andrew — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 22:18:44 +0000

Does that last paragraph make any sense?

By: Kevin Tate

Kevin Tate — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 22:11:28 +0000

Hmm...I wonder if the 146,000 activations understates the actual number of iPhones sold in June - since so many people had activation troubles during those first 48 hours?

Out of four friends who all got iPhones that Friday, I was the only one up and running within 24 hours...(and only 2 of the 4 still have their iPhones, but that's a different topic...) Would be curious to see what the Retail SKU count is.

By: James

James — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 21:30:44 +0000

Just like the Duke debacle, where the iPhone was blamed, when it was the Cisco routers...

A lot of Apple haters will be eating CROW when the actual iPhone sales numbers come out.

Lets not forget that on-line sales could not have been counted, since those phones could not have been activated until the following week. The sales also don't include Sunday, which is the weekend to me. Also, their were the activation problems that lasted all weekend. Stores running out of phones which delay purchases. Phones as gifts or for other people that were probably not activated until a day or two later. Phones on eBay... shall I continue?

By: Viswakarma

Viswakarma — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 21:24:22 +0000

Wall Street analysts are like rabbits! When the wind rustles the leaves they scatter or freeze!

Anybody who takes notice of these analysts and Wall Street numbers are dumb and crazy!

By: Christian Romney

Christian Romney — Tue, 24 Jul 2007 21:11:29 +0000

@greendrake - A badge of derision? Gimme a break.