Online ads created the dotcom bubble and bust in the late-nineties, and much later started to match those original revenue predictions. Will mobile ads follow the same path? Companies that dominate the ad, media and Internet worlds are placing their chips like Microsoft’s acquisition of ScreenTonic and AOL’s purchase of Third Screen Media. But how big will this market be – it depends on who you listen to.
Here, take a look:
- AOL’s CEO recently made headlines for saying the market for mobile ads will grow to $5 billion over the next 5 years, so by 2012, from $500 million to $900 million currently. He said those are market figures. (It is still not clear if that data is just for the U.S. market or global market.)
- eMarketer agrees and says that brands spent $421 million on mobile advertising in 2006 in the U.S. and will be spending nearly $5 billion on mobile advertising by 2011 in the U.S.
- ABI says that global mobile marketing and advertising is estimated to reach $3 billion by the end of 2007, and will increase sixfold to $19 billion by 2011.
- Informa Telecoms & Media predicts worldwide mobile advertising spending was $871 million in 2006 and will be $11.35 billion by 2010.
Mobile ad business is here to stay. But mobile users may feel unhappy in the initial stage. There should be some incentives to keep them happy.
So let’s average it at $10 billion by 2011. That’s still pretty big!
I am amazed that there are still people in the industry who say mobile ads will not catch on.
There were tons of positive comments about MA back in 1999 – with similarly large market estimations. The discussion about opt-in/opt-out is much bigger than you think. I still believe this is going to be a bigger struggle than people believe until the mobile user experience is significantly better than it is today. Until then, MA will be the ugly step-child to online advertising. Don’t bet the ranch on it yet!
my take is that success or failure of Mobile Advertisement to a large extent depends upon the quality and suitability of advertisement being shown on mobile .
will they try to rehash desktop advertisement for mobile or will they create advertisement specifically for mobile .
i seriously feel that Ad sense like text link will not work in the context of mobile because no one want to open an additional window to see what advertiser has got to offer . there should be some visual appeal banner,video , animation,music etc
another factor which will decide the evolution of mobile advertisement is whether it is treated as a broadcast medium [ like TV/Radio] it will be a good thing if regulator don’t treat it as a broadcast medium . in that case it will be possible for some category of advertisers like Tobbaco,Alcohol,Viagra ,Porn,high end Luxury product to reach their potential customers in a very targeted manner . it was not possible in any other medium . this is real opportunity of mobile advertisement .
whoever want to capture this opportunity need to take care of proper entertainment component of promotion running on small screen and need to exploit the viral potential of a message on mobile .
Although the most logical use for MA would seem to be to allow a viewer click the ad to dial a number, many of those MAs may also be designed to link into websites on web surfing capable mobile devices, so it would seem to me that developing sites that are mobile friendly may also be a very active market in the years ahead, especially since the vast majority of online sites are woefully prepared for proper mobile display and functionality.
The dollar amount does not intrigue me as much as the strategic choice to make decisions appropriate to mobile advertising. (Disclosure: I have worked for a few mobile advertising companies since 2000.) I cannot tell you how excited I am that this discussion is happening now. I started in mobile advertising in 2000 (with all the hype and press), and then people were promising the world. Now in 2007, things are just beginning to deliver on the promises of years ago. Critical mass has been met in terms of the number of users of the mobile Internet (and that term includes ringtones and wallpapers as well as browsing) and the eyeballs are there to make advertisers interested in this medium. It is different. It is unique. There is a lot of education ahead of us in the industry. But still, know mobile is here, and they are INTERESTED! Let’s educate them appropriately.
This aint Internet advertising, and trying to graft that model onto mobile is DOA IMHO.
The approach that will work initially will be more like direct marketing than advertising. Companies like Traffic.com (now NAVTEQ)who have content consumers want and sign up for will look to monetize that content with well-targeted offers. Ease consumers in that way, make it worth their while, and they won’t freak about offers.