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EMarketer has predicted that the global market for mobile video and TV will be $12.7 billion by 2011. This will be the first year that mobil…

EMarketer has predicted that the global market for mobile video and TV will be $12.7 billion by 2011. This will be the first year that mobile TV revenues surpass mobile video revenues, according to eMarketer, with mobile video bringing in $5 billion and mobile TV bringing in $7.7 billion. It’s also betting strongly on a free, ad-supported model by predicting there will be 119.9 million paid mobile video subscribers and 79.9 million paid mobile TV subscribers by 2011, out of a total of 754.4 million people using mobile video or TV. EMarketer also thinks that mobile TV users will be high-end customers, and is largely dependent on the availability of 3G networks.

Tech isn’t the problem: Many of the technology pieces for the market are in place, such as appropriate handsets and higher-speed networks. The issues holding back mobile TV and video are “rights management, revenue sharing and marketing to the consumer”, according to John Gauntt, senior analyst. (release)

On a similar note, eMarketer notes that Infonetics predicts that three quarters of carriers in North America, Europe and the Asia-Pacific plan to offer mobile video and TV by 2008, effectively doubling the number of those who offer it now. The intent is to offer services to attract customers and reduce churn, and over half the telcos plan to use a content aggregator for mobile video by 2008, up from 43 percent currently doing so.

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  1. In terms of commercial mobile TV vs. video, EMarketer'ss analysis that mobile TV revenues will be greater than mobile video revenues makes given consumer interest and willingness to pay for live TV on phones. However, when mobile user-generated video is added into the equation, it's likely that mobile video will generate more eyeballs/usage than mobile TV. It's already happened online, mobile is likely to be next.

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