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Summary:

The big news reported everywhere this week is a prediction that notebook computers (read laptops) will outsell desktops by the year 2011.  This is such big news it was even reported by my local TV news team.  As soon as I saw this prediction my memory […]

The big news reported everywhere this week is a prediction that notebook computers (read laptops) will outsell desktops by the year 2011.  This is such big news it was even reported by my local TV news team.  As soon as I saw this prediction my memory jogged and I asked myself “didn’t we already see this happen?”.  Sure enough, I Googled around and found this article by CRN from August 2005 where it was reported that notebook computers outsold desktops (in a single month) for the first time ever.  That was back in 2005 so I don’t understand why it will take until 2011 as the current prediction states.  I think it will happen long before then.

  1. John Christian Friday, March 23, 2007

    This isnt very strange at all. Families who have a desktop usually only have one, while they might have several laptops. Its also hard to know what a desktop is. My HTPC is a full blown PC which can run any windows application – is it a desktop computer? I think we can just conclude that generally, more computers will be in our homes. That notebooks outsell desktops is something I dont regard that as interesting information at all, its just another computer. It will continue to take many forms in the coming years. Consider its new shapes as being interesting information – like robotics. A general purpose house robot is also a powerful computer. If you wanted you could hook it up to a TV and a keyboard and voila you have another desktop (or portable depending on it following you around or not). Or a Sony PS3, is that a game console?… not really its just another general purpose computer-game-videoplayer-thingy that can double up as you desktop computer.

    Personally I dont like laptops much, mainly because they are usually shoddy built and generally breaks down more often than a typical desktop even if it just sits in your office being a “desktop” pc in that sense. The fact that something is built to sit somewhere makes the options better for having adequate cooling and expansion abilities + you can get a good desktop at half the price of a laptop that will break down on you after a year. :)

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  2. The BBC article does mention that laptops outsold desktops in 2005 in the States. However, it does not make clear that the report from IDC refers to the global scene, not just the States. Portables may be outpacing stationaries in wealthy nations, but everyone else is still catching up.

    As I predicted most recently at GBM, I think we’ll see the tablet platform strengthen as portable sales rise in nations that rely on character-based languages. HP has already recognized the need in India for character input. I’d be surprised if China didn’t soon follow.

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