Ten Major Trends for 2007 and thereafter…

Its nearly 2007 and time for some reflection, and an article in the McKinsey Quarterly on 10 long term megatrends caught my eye today. Its interesting to think about their impact on broadband media, and broadband media’s impact on them.

The trends …

[...] how widely on or off the mark we were. I didn’t write a predictions post last year, but I did comment on Om’s request for 2007 predictions, saying: My prediction or maybe just my hope: people will [...]

Prediction: look forward to many opinion pieces on why Cingular should not switch names to AT&T Wireless.

I see the emergence of prepaid in developing economies as payment for voice 2.0 products.
my 2c
Happy New Year Om

Jesse, that is not even playing fair. I think you have been reading my mind, and well you can read the first opinion piece soon enough…

I like how Mark Ward of the BBC quoted my prediction - “Actualization of Personalization.” Firefly of the 90s (collaborative filtering and more) is and will be reincarnated in many new forms! (link)

I think we will start to see a purging of “web 2.0″ sites. Meaning, all of the non-innovators and copycats will run out of cash, quit and move on, or just close for business. The “lets hope we get acquired” business model will kill all its proponents. :)

The End of the :30 minute and :60 minute TV program. After all the talk about the death of the :30 second spot, it’s now time for content to be liberated. As more providers (and users) are moving away from linear channels and embracing broadband TV, content will no longer be limited by the traditional half/full hour constraints. Network Programming Execs and their sales staff had to build their entire line-ups around that.. no longer. This is good news to the creative community, and more of a challenge for marketing folks.

Bio-tech is creating some amazing things. This year alone has seen the cloning of a bladder, liver, cartilage and several other tissues. I think next year will be about commercializing these new technologies.

Happy New Year!

-B

I think (or am I hoping) that Yahoo will do something big with del.icio.us

Jotspot or whatever it will be reborn as will be quite the product

Mobile is going to be for 2007 what video was for 2006

A few genuine tech organizations will test IPO waters.
But VC’s will still have solid hold on innovative business enterprises.

My prediction or maybe just my hope: people will stop talking about hybrid web/desktop apps because internet access will become nearly ubiquitous.

zoho gets picked up, either by google or msft. its the leader in the pack

See here…

(link)

One of the Internet leaders (other than GOOG) will rock Google by launching paid match, a new form of PPC where advertisers bid on peoples people’s traits and characteristics (keytraits), instead of the words they enter into search boxes.

Can’t disagree more with Ramzi above - hence my prediction #5 below. All six are here with explanations and detail on the link from my name if you’re interested:

1. Ecommerce 2.0 arrives

2. Social Network widgets find a business model

3. Lead generation breaks into new categories

4. Social Networking finally becomes a feature

5. News of TV’s death are greatly exaggerated

6. Software as a Service gets customer facing

My bet is on mobile entertainment and location based services.
* GPS devices become far more pervasive with a ton of value add services(DASH, Garmin Mobile etc.)
* Mobile TV (Launch of MediaFLO) and more revenues coming from wireless entertainment services, music and video
Also on the side, POTS is gonna come very close to its grave, and their will be VoIP galore !

people will finally start to notice how bad the spam problem is

Google will be investigated and forced to restate revenue and net income for the past four years - all due to the known 20% click fraud that falsely inflates their revenue..

Social Networks discover a business model.

Social Networks lose focus on the mainstream and concentrate on the niches.

Digg loses its steam.

Google continues to be darling of Web 2.0.

Microsoft allies with Yahoo after a major reorganization of strategies within both corporations.

Web 2.0 becomes the most hated term on the internet. It will also get incorporated in the oxford dictionary along side Google.

Clay Shirky looks in economic activity figures at Second Life and figures out they are bogus as well.

Netvibes or one of its competitors will definitely become the killer app as they develop collaborative aspects (ala basecamp for some part). They just need to first hire me. :-)

The Time Person of the Year, will take over Google, because Google forgot him/her!
:-p
Werner

Can’t say for 2007, its too early to predict, but I do see a burst of the Social Networking bubble in 2008 or 09. Web 2.0 will remain, but mostly for business oriented applications.

The fall of myspace

Digg become profitable

GigaOM starts to produce video content… (^_^)

HDDVD wins

On the consumer side:
Mobile widgets (e.g. Widsets) will give rise to some new mobile Internet services.

On the business side:
More clarity will emerge about tools that will initially supplement and ultimately replace email in the corporate world.

Mobile and voice will become as ubiquitous as internet.

I disagree with Anne, I think that this is the year of the hybrid web/desktop app.

I was just listening to a podcast yesterday that I think you should catch. It’s at TalkCrunch and about the new Adobe Apollo platform. The reason that I think it’s important is because Adobe is trying, in my mind, to create the enabling “secret sauce” that will allow the “Web 2.0″ companies compete in both the online as well as the offline world. It will make more sense if you listen to the podcast but imagine something like FeedDemon without the NewsGator world in the middle. Using Adobe Apollo you would be able to create the FeedDemon application once and have it as a client on your desktop OR as a web based application that you access anywhere. They don’t get to far into examples, simply talking about an MP3 player that you can use in either “online” or “local” mode. This podcast with the product manager is a good primer to take you farther down that road. The ability to use both local and web based resources for storage, access, updates, distribution…it has, in my mind, the ability to turn the “Office” productivity suite market on it’s head, upside down and backwards. The same could be said for many of the SaaS vendors like SalesForce.com. The limitation there is you can only access it via the web. With the Adobe Apollo world you could have a local client to work with when you are not connected that automatically synchs when you get connected again and, oh yeah, allows you remote access anywhere via the web whenever you want it. Now, if I only had the technical skills to do something with this idea :)

Since google has entered the IPTV sector with the acquisition of YouTube, I think that next logical step would be to acquire Tivo. Google would then incorparate their new GoogleTV advertising platform, Bittorrent,Gtalk, RSS & a suit of other Google applacations for a complete personalized IPTV experence.

I don’t know about you but I am on “Web 3.0″ already.

-D

For the first time there is hope that the power of the new media (blog,wiki and social networking websites) will bring people together to stand unitedly against the powerful and corrupted bunch of politicians,police and bureaucrats.

Therefore I believe that for a country like India the new media will be her savior.

Wish you a very Happy New Year and thanks for staying true and sharing all the good things with us over the years. Best wishes for gigaum.

In short, internet advertising will get even more increasingly insane to read on simple websites.

High marketed products will beat out any high spec products. (Oh wait this has been going on since the early 90’s hence the MS takeover).

Number (x.0) standards being made up are getting lame and undefined. The developers know that the next standard is what they make and not what others try to constitute, but it is something to look back on as a subject…so I guess ‘they’ need it.

And the jump in the SIM world will spurge - which I don’t see much in your blog posts Om, sure the readers will get an interesting chat out of the numbers and implementation planning from providers and manufacturers.

CyKiller

google buys salesforce

MVNOver!!!!

MVNO’s are dead.

The Korean’s kill Sky Dayton.

That lame Ozzie @ Amp’d gets a Kangaroo beating…

and Mickey Mouse Mobile finally gets stepped on.

Have to agree with Nitin. Surely 2007 is the year of LBS (location based services) - companies like Loopt will grow customer base and get interesting (possible acquisition target) and potentially via partnerships with community review sites such as Yelp - could we see the concept of Mobile Graffiti take off - short messages left via mobile to physical coordinates in real-time? Neat.