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Summary:

If you believe some of the forecasts that have started to show up in our inbox, then 2007 will prove to be a blockbuster year, up 29.6% from 2006 in terms of total subscribers. Pike & Fischer forecast that there will be 70 million broadband users […]

If you believe some of the forecasts that have started to show up in our inbox, then 2007 will prove to be a blockbuster year, up 29.6% from 2006 in terms of total subscribers.

Pike & Fischer forecast that there will be 70 million broadband users by end of 2007, with cable operators holding a razor thin margin over DSL. Fiber networks are still in the emerging category, I guess.

They say that would add up to 58% total US household penetration, and about 74% of the total home Internet connections. Pike & Fischer has forecasted that there will be 54 million broadband subscribers in the US at the end of 2006. The 2007 boost is about 29.6%. In comparison, there were 42.9 million subscribers at the end of 2005, and the 2005-to-2006 growth was 25.6%.

Are you finding these forecasts a tad too optimistic, or do you feel that near-30% growth is quite feasible? The reason for my doubts: broadband providers has picked the low hanging fruit and this growth means that there will lower-priced additions to the overall number, and broadband providers will have to work hard to attract new users. In other words, more money will be spent on advertising and marketing!

  1. Om, I think the answer (will the projection for Broadband be +30%) is somewhere in the middle… I live in rural Oregon, and many, many of my customers here have moved from dial-up to DSL/wireless/fiber/satellite in the last year, and I believe it will continue. Morrow Co. (Oregon) only has a total population of about 7000, but in the last year we suddenly have all the above alternatives. And cable is coming, also.

    I think the projection not so much reflects areas that already have broadband, but rather the NEW areas that are just getting competitive services. My customers have be holding off on moving to high-speed simply because there weren’t enough options; it’s not so much price but the perception of need.

    Excellent work, both here and on Cranky Geeks, which I love. Keep up the good work.

    • Pat Struthers
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  2. Let me get this straight…they’re saying that the number of broadband subscribers in the U.S. will jump by 16 million in 2007, i.e. from 54 million at the end of 2006 to 70 million by the end of 2007? After having grown by only 11 million in 2006, i.e. from 42.9 million to 54 million?

    Why in the world would cable operators and phone companies add five million more broadband customers in 2007 than they added in 2006?

    Om, you’re right. Now that cable companies and phone companies have churned through the early adopters and early majority of consumers, each additional penetration point will be that much more difficult to get, unless phone companies are willing to engage in another price war (doubtful) or some unforeseen development occurs that makes consumers rush out and buy broadband in greater numbers.

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  3. Hmm. FiOS is largely, IMHO, taking existing broadband customers. Didn’t we see this year that the big growth from cheap barely-broadband (768kps DSL) petered out? Hard to see where it’s going to come from, outside of networks simply growing so that people who were not eligible now are.

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