GigaOM » Should Hollywood Fear Google?…

Why? The next time Om has a terrific bombshell of a post, plug it into Technorati to see how many are linking within the first hour. Usually far less than the “popular” news here: (link)

It is always a pleasure reading your posts. But this time I don’t agree with your views.

I have presented my views - here

Thx

But I’m not convinced that the underpinning for that phase of the networked entertainment evolution will be driven by hyperlinks — not in the sense of today’s page-to-page hyperlinks. Google doesn’t always grow stronger as links expand. There are too many links that are simply spam, garbage, or malicious. Spamdex continues to grow at an alarming rate.

There are much better models for providing guideance and recommendations for video and audio media. The social search poster children (Digg, del.icio.us, et al) may have a shot at it but I believe it will ultimately come down to a system that let’s me define a personal relevance filter for the content I want to consume.

And thanks for the rest of the comments… particularly the ones who raised the very valid issue of how my thesis applies to different types of content (user-generated vs. studio-quality). I will provide an answer, but please be patient as I will do so in a subsequent blog post. That way I can delve into the issues with the thoroughness it deserves.

I think it is clear that all content publishers who intend to use the web as a medium for selling and distribution will need to be conscious of the danger posed to their position by the need for search.

It’s all very well to have your content online but if it cannot be found then it’s no use. Equally if you have to pay to have your content “appear naturally” near the top of search results then your position is even worse. Even if Google don’t ask for such payment you will probably pay them for contextual ads anyway and it’s the same deal.

“What kind of video are we talking about here… home-made trash or major studio productions with digital rights?”

That may not be an important distinction. Look at the sudden rise of the Bus Uncle video on youtube.com

With five million downloads and a series of spinoffs, the Bus Uncle video suggests that one person’s trash might be the next person’s CNN

check it out at

(link) weblog/2006/06/busuncle_signs.html

What if interest rates increase and we have a recession and the cost of commodities rise significantly (including commoditized laptops, storage, memory chips, video equipment, podcasting equipment, digital slr cameras, video camcorders, etc.)? What if we have Jimmy Carter-like interest rates in five years? What if unemployment also increases? How will these social media programmers put food on their plate? Will Google pay them for all their hard work? I doubt it.

I actually see Apple being the winner in the paid content arena. They have a stable application that people are familiar with and comfortable purchasing from.

Compare Google’s video interface with iTunes.
Or for that matter Yahoo Video or Youtube.
They are all more user-friendly than Google Video.

Google does well at search and email, but as of yet they haven’t done well in any other arena.