21 Comments

Summary:

Vonage IPO post game analysis has begun, and there is a lot of interesting opinions out there. Mathew Ingram’s take is here. Andy has his take. I have Jon Arnold’s guest column coming up here, but more than anything, I just wanted to get your feedback […]

Vonage IPO post game analysis has begun, and there is a lot of interesting opinions out there. Mathew Ingram’s take is here. Andy has his take. I have Jon Arnold’s guest column coming up here, but more than anything, I just wanted to get your feedback and thoughts on the IPO. Take the poll!

  1. Apparently 19% of your readers are Vonage shareholders OM :)

    In all seriousness, very simply I believe the company must show (in a hurry) that it can dramatically reverse course in its expense and cash burn, otherwise it’s a foregone conclusion that Vonage will need to access the capital markets again just to stay in place.

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  2. Vonage will be a story of shakey start and a huge “finish” with a big return for those that stuck around.

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  3. My bet would be between $6 and $8.
    If churn starts to be painful for them then probably less than that.

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  4. Om,

    The poll is entertaining as is, but why not add in the currently omitted $10-17 range and we’ll have actual poll results to look at.

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  5. They’re a one-trick pony with no network on which to deliver a more diversified service offering (eg. multimedia). I’m hoping they announce plans to launch a social networking website. That would be an excellent punchline to this joke, don’t you think?

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  6. What I would really be interested in is stats on how many Vonage customers knew about their ability to get in on the IPO vs. how many actually did. My bet is that the number of current customers who “took advantage” of this is almost immeasurably small. That is probably the best indicator of how this company is doing.

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  7. ken

    you have a good point, but it would make the poll too much. but it is a good idea. perhaps we can do this the next time around, when their earnings come out. still this does give everyone an idea as to what the current thinking is. clearly, the poll takers are saying its going to be range bound between $10-and-$5. why not the $10-to-$17, well, the stock is down to almost $13. lets see how it does tomorrow.

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  8. I believe that a lot of customers signed up for the IP0. I put in a conditional offer for 100 shares and got none (thank god!), but I know a fellow customer who put in an offer for 4000 shares and got something like 900. That suggests that there was a lot of demand.

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  9. Ebay and Yahoo got a big pop yesterday from the proto-alliance talk.

    Idea for next poll (s)

    Will Ebay and Yahoo merge? Never ;Within 6 months; 6-18 mos.; 18 mos.

    Will GOOG market cap outperform combined YHOO EBAY market cap over next 12 mos?

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  10. In response to the first comment, the IPO prospectus indicates that their primary strategy is to continue acquiring customers. They will continue to bleed cash until someone larger buys them out or they crash and burn. My guess is the latter, as they’ve now become too expensive to purchase. It would cost an acquirer $2B for $1.6M subscribers, or $1,250 each.

    I’m a customer and was eligible for the IPO shares, but passed.

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