Comments on: Can eBay Predict Superbowl Champ? http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/ Sat, 11 Feb 2012 12:44:45 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Dave's Football Blog http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113866 Tue, 31 Jan 2006 21:23:34 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113866 Hey, Om! I know why this SuperScore is REALLY slanted toward the Seahawks…

http://www.davesfootballblog.com/2006/01/its-all-myron-copes-fault.html

]]> By: Om Malik http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113865 Sun, 29 Jan 2006 18:57:58 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113865 Aswath,

my favorite sport happens to be in New York, not in India. and yup, I agree, the population and economic posperity cannot match the “on the ground” reality.

ebay-mash-up is a different take on the age old trick – calaculating the odds, though i figure in the end that doesn’t make sense.

if that did, then the Yankees would never lose, but do, more often than the numbers suggest they should. sigh..

]]> By: Aswath http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113864 Sun, 29 Jan 2006 16:36:00 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113864 Matt,

I agree with you on the fallacy of this thinking. Otherwise, I suppose we all can will the Sun to rise in the west. Or to use Om’s favorite sports, India will win every match, on the thoery that its fan base is more populace.

]]> By: Matt Rogers http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113863 Sun, 29 Jan 2006 04:01:27 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113863 A perfect example of the utter fallacy of economic thinking. Regardless of how people economically value a team what counts is the hundred million unknowable variables that happen on the ground and that are unknowable until the game is played. Things like how are all the players feeling? Will someone trip and have some sort of accident, will the weather favor one team or other, blah, blah. Economists live in models that have little connection with reality.

As the dot com bubble showed the vaunted “market” is only all too fallible, probably the housing bubble will be the the next example of overinflated markets wrongly predicting the future.

I welcome comments at raven200 at gmail.com

]]> By: Tester http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113862 Sun, 29 Jan 2006 00:12:22 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113862 Here is a very interesting blog, with a post on why the emergence of the Internet took many by surprise.

http://futurist.typepad.com

]]> By: Om Malik http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113861 Sat, 28 Jan 2006 00:01:00 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113861 Of course, no one can argue with those spread makers. i agree gambling sites do tens to be more accurate. still, i though this was an interesting experiment worth sharing with others.

]]> By: Sam O http://gigaom.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113860 Fri, 27 Jan 2006 23:35:17 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2006/01/27/can-ebay-predict-superbowl-champ/#comment-113860 The Superbowl is an odd example for this data because there is already a direct market for predicting the winner of the superbowl: gambling sites. A site with high volume, and person-to-person instead of a person-against-company, like TradeSports.com, will be a far better predictor.

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