Tablet PCs to grow or go away?

Checking through the RSS feeds this morning I found something that shows how hard it is to predict the future of a given technology:

TechWeb:  Tablet PC Faces Uncertain Future, Analyst Says

The article quotes the In-Stat report that has been mentioned this week on numerous web site that basically gives a fairly dim outlook on the future of the Tablet PC as a viable platform.  They mention that the entrance of an Ultra Mobile PC as demonstrated by Bill Gates at WinHEC could play a factor.

TechWeb:  Tablet PCs Headed For Broader Use, Study Says

I find this amusing since this article which has a very positive outlook on the future of the Tablet PC was written by the same tech media organization.  The study that is mentioned in the article, the same In-Stat study, predicts $5.4 billion in sales of Tablet PCs by 2009.  I happen to believe this article rather than the former.  I guess it’s how you interpret the numbers.

Register:  Tablet PC biz to see Vista-driven boom

This article in The Register, a site normally none too kind on the Tablet PC, claims that Tablet PC sales will see a boom when WindowsVista is released.  The really amusing thing about this article is it uses the same In-Stat study as the basis for this prediction.

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