Comments on: US mobile growth to slow? http://gigaom.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/ Tracking the Internet Evolution Mon, 07 Jul 2008 01:21:00 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU By: PhoneBoy's Blog http://gigaom.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8915 PhoneBoy's Blog Wed, 16 Mar 2005 09:09:56 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8915 <strong>50 Million Cingular Customers?</strong> According to a couple of news stories, Cingular has over 50 million subscribers. Talk about raising the bar. That's one hell of a mobile-to-mobile calling family. Meanwhile, Om points out that, mobile phone growth will slow. When you have a... 50 Million Cingular Customers?

According to a couple of news stories, Cingular has over 50 million subscribers. Talk about raising the bar. That’s one hell of a mobile-to-mobile calling family. Meanwhile, Om points out that, mobile phone growth will slow. When you have a…

]]> By: Om Malik http://gigaom.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8913 Om Malik Wed, 16 Mar 2005 04:08:21 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8913 my guess is that it is a typo here. in the jupiter forecast. also it was not me who said that the consolidation was a good thing for the customer. i did say that now finally some semblence will return to the market which means new technologies might get deployed right in time. that seems to be playing out right according to plan. the ev-do roll out from verizon and sprint has started. cingular is slowly rolling out the 3g network. what it means for the end customer, who knows - at least for now my guess is that it is a typo here. in the jupiter forecast. also it was not me who said that the consolidation was a good thing for the customer. i did say that now finally some semblence will return to the market which means new technologies might get deployed right in time. that seems to be playing out right according to plan. the ev-do roll out from verizon and sprint has started. cingular is slowly rolling out the 3g network. what it means for the end customer, who knows - at least for now

]]> By: Daniel Spisak http://gigaom.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8912 Daniel Spisak Wed, 16 Mar 2005 03:34:15 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8912 Oh and to touch on Charlie's comment. His opinion summed up here is basically: "Balkanize the carrier space in the name of customer choice" I forgot who said it (it might have been Om) but were people talking recently about how consolidation of the carrier space was going to be a Good Thing(tm) for the customer? And now we are saying that the carriers have too much say and that the solution to carriers having too much say is to introduce more carriers into the market? I'm confused. Oh and to touch on Charlie’s comment. His opinion summed up here is basically:

“Balkanize the carrier space in the name of customer choice”

I forgot who said it (it might have been Om) but were people talking recently about how consolidation of the carrier space was going to be a Good Thing(tm) for the customer? And now we are saying that the carriers have too much say and that the solution to carriers having too much say is to introduce more carriers into the market?

I’m confused.

]]> By: Daniel Spisak http://gigaom.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8910 Daniel Spisak Wed, 16 Mar 2005 03:28:36 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8910 2004 ----- 22.8 million SMS text msgs .8 million MMS text msgs (guess) 2009 ----- 49,800 million SMS text msgs (proj) 4,400 million MMS text msgs (proj) 49800/22.8*100 = 218421% growth in 5 years? If I am thinking clearly here doesnt this imply something like 193% growth annualy for 5 years? Let's go onto Jupiters MMS numbers now: 4400/.8*100 = 550000% growth in 5 years? Okay perhaps my assumption of .8 million MMS in 2004 is off, lets take the 5 year growth projected for SMS and use that to work backwards from projected MMS to what is currently the MMS market in Amercia (according to Jupiter). 218421/100 = 2184.21 4400/x = 2184.21 x = .496 So Jupiter is saying MMS market right now in 2004 is less then half a million MMS messages? What are these jokers at Jupiter smoking, because its got to be some good stuff to think these are plausible growth numbers for the american SMS/MMS market! Anyone who pays money for "market analysis" like this has just wasted their money in my eyes. But hey, I could be smoking crack here guys. 2004
—–
22.8 million SMS text msgs
.8 million MMS text msgs (guess)

2009
—–
49,800 million SMS text msgs (proj)
4,400 million MMS text msgs (proj)

49800/22.8*100 = 218421% growth in 5 years?

If I am thinking clearly here doesnt this imply something like 193% growth annualy for 5 years?

Let’s go onto Jupiters MMS numbers now:

4400/.8*100 = 550000% growth in 5 years?

Okay perhaps my assumption of .8 million MMS in 2004 is off, lets take the 5 year growth projected for SMS and use that to work backwards from projected MMS to what is currently the MMS market in Amercia (according to Jupiter).

218421/100 = 2184.21

4400/x = 2184.21

x = .496

So Jupiter is saying MMS market right now in 2004 is less then half a million MMS messages?

What are these jokers at Jupiter smoking, because its got to be some good stuff to think these are plausible growth numbers for the american SMS/MMS market!

Anyone who pays money for “market analysis” like this has just wasted their money in my eyes.

But hey, I could be smoking crack here guys.

]]> By: Om Malik http://gigaom.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8909 Om Malik Wed, 16 Mar 2005 00:51:20 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8909 good points you raise charlie. guess i just want an itunes phone bad enoug that all good business sense has left my brain right now. lusting for anything, including an iPhone is a bad idea good points you raise charlie. guess i just want an itunes phone bad enoug that all good business sense has left my brain right now. lusting for anything, including an iPhone is a bad idea

]]> By: Charlie Sierra http://gigaom.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8908 Charlie Sierra Tue, 15 Mar 2005 23:43:21 +0000 http://gigaom.wordpress.com/2005/03/15/us-mobile-growth-to-slow/#comment-8908 If MOT wants to really sell the iTunes phone, then let them startup an MVNO, like everybody else. As an MVNO, they can sell any damn phone they like (well almost!). Om, I hate to disagree with you, but on this issue of "balance-of-power" between carriers and name-brand mfg's, I have to say its not as one sided as it seems. The mfgs reap big benefits from have the carrier act as their phone consumer, those being pricing(really subsidies) and inventory mgt. Granted these may be un-sexy topics, but they are quite important. If the FCC mandated that carriers can't subsidize phones, and consumers could take their phones with them as they switch carriers, etc. that would have a very negative impact on the name-brand mfgs. Raising a little PR stink about the iTunes phones is just part of the game. If MOT wants to really sell the iTunes phone, then let them startup an MVNO, like everybody else.

As an MVNO, they can sell any damn phone they like (well almost!).

Om, I hate to disagree with you, but on this issue of “balance-of-power” between carriers and name-brand mfg’s, I have to say its not as one sided as it seems. The mfgs reap big benefits from have the carrier act as their phone consumer, those being pricing(really subsidies) and inventory mgt. Granted these may be un-sexy topics, but they are quite important.

If the FCC mandated that carriers can’t subsidize phones, and consumers could take their phones with them as they switch carriers, etc. that would have a very negative impact on the name-brand mfgs.

Raising a little PR stink about the iTunes phones is just part of the game.

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