4 Comments

Summary:

Want to see Moore’s Claw at work? Look no further than the broadband equipment business, which is in cyclical decline despite a sharp increase in the total number of broadband users, fancy new applications and in general, a thirst for bandwidth. Synergy Research Group forecasts that […]

Want to see Moore’s Claw at work? Look no further than the broadband equipment business, which is in cyclical decline despite a sharp increase in the total number of broadband users, fancy new applications and in general, a thirst for bandwidth. Synergy Research Group forecasts that the equipment demand for broadband is going to decline 1.3% every year through 2009 to $5.2 billion from about $5.9 billion in 2004. Yet at the same time, nearly 12% customer premise devices – DSL modems and Cable modems- will sell every year, as dial-up folks say see ya slow speeds, hello broadband. DSL will continue to evolve to higher speeds in Europe, where copper loops are new, and central offices are closer to consumer homes. In Asia VDSL will propel demand, but in US unless fiber really kicks in, things could get tricky for DSL gear makers.

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  1. All I can say is, its about damn time.

    Telco equipment mfg’s have been overcharging Americans for years. The situation is even worst than the ripoff from the Drug companies, but since senior citizens aren’t rampaging down the streets with rotary phones, TV won’t cover it.

    Its absurd that the ARPU in India and China is a mere fraction of our ARPU and magically they can afford GSM or CDMA standard phones.

    Not that I expect any near term improvements, because as we all know, everybody in the wireless foodchain is QCOM’s bitch, even VZW.

  2. Well, it is a strange situation. there is this whole argument john dovorak was making in one of his columns that slowly we in the US are becoming the david to tech’s new big spenders, India and China’s goliath. they have all the broadband and wireless advantages really because they are not really locked into a aging business model

  3. Sagacious Copycat Wednesday, December 31, 1969

    @1

    “the ripoff from the Drug companies”

    Riiight because people should work eight hours a day and be paid absolutely nothing. Socialism has been working oh so well for the rest of the world. Let’s just keep it out of this country.

    @2

    “new big spenders”

    And on the subject of other world governments it greatly behooves the US to CEASE giving money away to other countries (loans, trade deficeits, disaster relief, charity, etc etc). If private citizens want to send checks then have at. This marxism has to stop now.

    Fortunately it appears we’ve crossed “that line” where ISPs will not be able to get away with charging home users for priority traffic like in a business ‘net world. People want speed and will not tolerate a cost increase. Expect more bang for the buck over time. Fiber is coming to a street near you soon.

  4. Reinventing Broadband

    There is already evidence even in Europe that the broadband slowdown predicted by Om Malik in a recent post is already happening.
    Last Days of DSL
    Merrill Lynch is making a bold prediction: the demand for DSL gear after

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