Clearly, Jeff Jarvis and I have got our wires crossed over the whole exploding TV thing, as he points out in this comment. He is talking potato and I am talking tomato. I argued that the cable and other television is not going to die as quickly. What Jeff is arguing for is a broadband-based indi-content. Of course that would work, as the videos of tsunamis and their rapid distribution has shown. I argued for that as much in my piece, Rise of the New News Network. I am not sure if there is a viable business model around it as yet. Current News Events captured on video phones, or even high-end video cameras could find distribution for free and gain popularity.
Jeff and others argue that program makers can go directly to the consumer in this new model especially if they come up shows, well if not broadcast quality but say a step lower. That would work, but it would mean that a lot of viewing habits have to change and that takes a long time. The business model is “Long Tail” where niches can be profitable. That makes sense but as I said earlier, this is going to take a lot longer than we think. Quality content is going to be subsidized by someone. If a video costs say $5000 to make, its a risk worth taking. What if the show costs $25,000 and doesn’t work – well someone is out of pocket. No problems with the technology vision thing, the economic model still is cloudy. I recommend you read Jeff’s comments and his posts.