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Summary:

If you set the bar low enough, everything exceeds your expectations. For instance, I assume as a reporter most people would try to spin me. If they don’t, it makes me smile and turns my day into a great day. Same is the case with cellular […]

If you set the bar low enough, everything exceeds your expectations. For instance, I assume as a reporter most people would try to spin me. If they don’t, it makes me smile and turns my day into a great day. Same is the case with cellular data business. Strategy Analytics estimates that global revenues from mobile data will grow from around $61 Billion this year to just over $189 Billion in 2009, with person-to-person messaging representing 48 percent of the total.

  • SA still expects lowly text messaging via SMS to remain the dominant global application.
  • Entertainment applications will generate revenues of $52 Billion in 2009 with ‘Music and Media’ and ‘Sports’ content the top two categories. That’s 28% of the total market

David Kerr, Vice President of the Strategy Analytics Global Wireless Practice, adds, “Certain applications are very promising: ringtones and download games continue to perform strongly in many markets, and are increasingly supplemented by video and audio infotainment services as the number of consumer 3G launches ramps up.” (complete press release)

  1. This looks like the usual tipsy extrapolations. I can’t work out your point of view. Are these numbers logical or space cadet territory. I tend to look at them and ask “How could they be wrong?” I’m inclined to think this part of the future is not very well thought out.

    Then there are other issues. At Real I can now get a song track for .50 that’s cheaper than the $1 for most ring tones.

    Where they are wrong are the big opportunities.

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  2. good point stuart. i see these numbers and look at the logic behind them – it is at least not a hockey stick chart. i am bit mixed on this data. but given strategy analytics track record, i am going to give them the benefit of the doubt, and not fly of the handle … yet. i clearly think that ringtones are a much simpler and easier market to cash in on for record companies. i think that is a big market. unfortunately real did not think in those terms and missed the opportunity. actually so did microsoft, apple and everyone else in the US. ringtones is a Euro Asian phenom.

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  3. I wonder how much if any of the forecast built in the China story? See ChinaPrivateEquity for a note post on the fallout from falling SMS revenues in China.

    I also read in the print version of Wired Magazine recently a short piece on the previously forecasted trends for online users, online shopping and the like. Key point: the forecasts were mostly trending as predicted but with a lag or a year or so.

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