If somebody opens up a keynote with: “This is a country who defeated Iraq in three weeks, but still can’t figure out SMS,” you know where this is going. North and into some more esoteric topics, and I mean that in a good, getting your head out of the sand way. Kevin Werbach was speaking at the TV Meets the Web 2003 conference in Amsterdam earlier today.
Some random notes: In some ways, convergence is already happening. TV + wireless + Tivo + server: it looks like a PC. The Moore’s law is coming to the media world.
Changing models: Decentralization: the devices at the edge become more intelligent and give something back to the central devices. Architecture of Internet and wireless as well.
And then, the fully distributed system: P2P networks, broadband mesh networks. Every new device which comes onto the networks adds capacity and intelligence.
So, more edges than centers: faster innovation beats predictable ubiquity. Economically, the decentralized model is very efficient. All the costs curves are on your side, as the devices on the edge become cheaper.
So what does all this mean: Not just TV!
– Telecom: VoIP & WiFi
–Enterprise software: Web Services
– Online Content: Weblogs and news aggregation
– Music & Movies: P2P sharing
End of Scarcity: Value of TV and other media arises from scarce distribution channels. What if that no longer holds true? If you want to be scared, look at what’s happening to the telecom industry. Why do you think spectrum is scarce? We make spectrum scarce through technical architectures and regulation.
The idea of spectrum scarcity is a myth, a figment of imagination. Devices are much more smarter now than in 1920s when the spectrum allocations were set up. Most of the radio waves are empty.
TV as a “network” business, in a new sense…
– Be MSFT: own the platform
– Be Dell: low cost personalized commodity producer
– Be eBay: scale, scale and scale in a network-effects business
– Be Google: complex technology serving outward simplicity
– Be Apple: design and branding to dominate a niche
The coverage of this trip is sponsored by Yaga.